22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result

Troyes
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Estac Troyes, 21% draw, 55% Paris FC — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Paris FC at 55% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estac Troyes4%Draw90%Paris FC6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁L. Koleoshoout: M. Simon
🔁Y. Titiout: N. Donkor
55'
Michel Diaz
56'
62'
Otávio
63'
🔁R. Matondoout: M. Lopez
🔁K. Diawaraout: A. Mille
75'
🔁I. Gomisout: A. Phliponeau
76'
79'
🔁L. Sinayokoout: O. Sissoko
81'
🔁P. Pagisout: P. Zabi
🔁R. Ripartout: Y. Kone
86'

Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Paris FC

43%Possession57%
7Shots8
2On target0
5Corners0
0.38xG0.8

Goals against chances

Estac Troyes0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
Paris FC0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estac Troyes 4-3-3
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 44Y. TitiD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4J. M. DiazD
  • 3A. OuzenadjiD
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 10M. IfnaouiF
  • 20R. RipartF
  • 7K. DiawaraF
Substitutes
  • 40H. KonateG
  • 31N. DonkorD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 37C. BatolaF
  • 39Y. KoneF
  • 36I. SoukounaM
Coach: Stephane Dumont
Paris FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 17A. CamaraD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 6OtavioD
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 15L. KoleoshoM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 14H. TraoreD
  • 28T. De SmetD
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 8P. ZabiM
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 27M. SimonF
Coach: Liam Rosenior

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Estac Troyes411249-54
5Paris FC422062+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC

  • 22 August 2026Estac Troyes 0–0 Paris FCLigue 1
  • 21 February 2025Paris FC 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
  • 21 October 2024Estac Troyes 0–3 Paris FCLigue 2
  • 17 July 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 April 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCLigue 2
  • 28 October 2023Paris FC 2–2 Estac TroyesLigue 2

Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Paris FC

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Paris FC

  • L. Sinayoko4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.