15 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Excelsior, 24% draw, 43% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PSV Eindhoven at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Excelsior0%Draw4%PSV Eindhoven96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽R. van Bommel
🔁A. Slitiout: N. Martens
46'
🔁I. Silva Timasout: O. Turay
46'
⚽C. Widellassist: I. Yegoian
54'
56'
⚽R. Pepiassist: S. Dest
63'
🔁P. Wannerout: K. Sano
63'
🔁R. van Bommelout: A. Bouhamdi
🔁D. Gardenout: N. Groen
68'
72'
🔁I. Perisicout: D. Man
🔁L. Hartjesout: A. Jahanbakhsh
74'
🔁D. van Vianenout: Y. Finey
80'
🔁S. Janssenout: M. Dominguez
80'
84'
🔁R. Pepiout: S. Mijnans
Jan Plug
88'
89'
🔁S. Destout: K. Sildillia

Match stats — Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

41%Possession59%
5Shots20
2On target8
1Corners7
0.32xG2.21

Goals against chances

Excelsior1 from 0.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
PSV Eindhoven2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Excelsior 4-3-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 6D. van VianenM
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 19D. Garden
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
Substitutes
  • 16C. BiaiG
  • 5S. HenderikxD
  • 24G. CairoM
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 17N. MartensD
  • 9M. DominguezF
  • 30A. JahanbakhshF
  • 28N. GroenF
Coach: Ruben den Uil
PSV Eindhoven 4-3-3
  • 32M. KovarG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JuniorD
  • 20G. TilM
  • 23J. VeermanM
  • 10P. WannerM
  • 5I. PerisicF
  • 9R. PepiF
  • 7R. van BommelF
Substitutes
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 41K. NgomG
  • 25K. SildilliaD
  • 3Y. GasiorowskiD
  • 38F. MerienD
  • 21S. MijnansM
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 27D. ManF
  • 19E. BajraktarevicF
Coach: Peter Bosz

Form going into Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

Excelsior

  • W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026

PSV Eindhoven

  • D2-2Fortuna Sittard8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Excelsior6312137+610
1PSV Eindhoven6510227+1516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven

  • 15 August 2026Excelsior 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 10 January 2026PSV Eindhoven 5–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 27 September 2025Excelsior 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 14 January 2025PSV Eindhoven 5–4 ExcelsiorKNVB Beker
  • 2 April 2024Excelsior 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 13 January 2024PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie

Leading scorers: Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven

Excelsior

  • D. Garden3 goals

PSV Eindhoven

  • S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.