14 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Telstar 1-3 Sparta Rotterdam.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Telstar, 19% draw, 14% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Telstar at 67% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Telstar0%Draw1%Sparta Rotterdam99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽M. Youngassist: N. Thorisson
53'
⚽N. Thorissonassist: S. Mito
Abdelnour Soualhia
55'
56'
Lushendry Edward Martes
🔁G. Caschiliout: R. Oudsten
57'
🔁R. Mendesout: E. Demircan
57'
62'
🔁C. Terhoout: M. van Bergen
🔁J. Hardeveldout: P. Aning
64'
🔁J. Seedorfout: N. Shenkman
64'
76'
🔁S. Mitoout: A. Roaldsoy
76'
🔁J. Toornstraout: R. van Cruijsen
85'
🔁J. Baasout: T. Quintero
85'
🔁N. Thorissonout: M. Zonneveld
⚽A. Soualhia
90'
90'
⚽R. van Cruijsenassist: B. Kuipers

Match stats — Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam

61%Possession39%
7Shots16
1On target9
7Corners5
1.4xG2.14

Goals against chances

Telstar1 from 1.40 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sparta Rotterdam3 from 2.14 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Telstar 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. Koeman JrG
  • 18G. CaschiliD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 2J. HardeveldD
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 10T. OwusuM
  • 7R. MendesM
  • 27P. BrouwerM
  • 11S. HetliM
  • 9J. SeedorfF
Substitutes
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 13F. Mulder
  • 5P. AningM
  • 15N. Nwankwo
  • 6I. AhmedM
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
  • 19F. RustF
  • 28R. OudstenD
  • 14H. KusterM
Coach: Henk Brugge
Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. BednarekG
  • 2L. MartesD
  • 3M. YoungD
  • 4N. VerschurenD
  • 5B. KuipersD
  • 6J. BaasM
  • 8J. ToornstraM
  • 7C. TerhoM
  • 10S. MitoM
  • 11A. SantosM
  • 9N. ThorissonF
Substitutes
  • 20R. SuurG
  • 30D. LindhoutG
  • 14B. Martins IndiD
  • 12B. ReithD
  • 13T. QuinteroD
  • 15G. VianelloD
  • 16A. RoaldsoyM
  • 21Y. Jaber el MaftahiM
  • 18R. van Cruijsen
Coach: Rogier Meijer

Form going into Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam

Telstar

  • W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026

Sparta Rotterdam

  • L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Telstar6123511-65
12Sparta Rotterdam61231013-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam

  • 14 August 2026Telstar 1–3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 11 July 2026Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 April 2026Telstar 4–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 25 October 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 TelstarEredivisie
  • 13 July 2021Telstar 0–0 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 August 2020Telstar 0–0 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Telstar and Sparta Rotterdam

Telstar

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Sparta Rotterdam

  • M. Zonneveld4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.