15 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Eredivisie prediction & result

Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Fortuna Sittard 3-1 Cambuur.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Fortuna Sittard, 17% draw, 12% Cambuur — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fortuna Sittard at 71% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortuna Sittard97%Draw3%Cambuur0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Brittijnassist: M. Ihattaren
6'
⚽L. Zeefuikassist: J. Dahlhaus
15'
22'
⚽R. El Arguiouiassist: N. Souren
🔁S. Wylinout: E. Michut
46'
46'
🔁M. Costarelliout: W. Kooistra
50'
Lucas Jetten
64'
Nicky Souren
🔁J. Dahlhausout: N. de Groot
72'
🔁M. Ihattarenout: S. Zand
72'
🔁O. Romenyout: A. Descotte
72'
76'
🔁I. Henstraout: F. Kvam
76'
🔁S. Vinkout: N. Binder
82'
🔁J. Amofaout: W. van der Goot
88'
🔁I. Hamacheout: R. Mulders
🔁L. Zeefuikout: M. Gbemou
90'
⚽S. Zandassist: I. Pinto
90'

Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur

36%Possession64%
17Shots19
7On target7
6Corners7
1.35xG2.53

Goals against chances

Fortuna Sittard3 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cambuur1 from 2.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fortuna Sittard 3-4-2-1
  • 31M. BranderhorstG
  • 12I. PintoD
  • 6S. van OtteleD
  • 28J. HubnerD
  • 2S. WylinM
  • 23P. BrittijnM
  • 5Y. OukiliM
  • 8J. DahlhausM
  • 52M. IhattarenF
  • 10O. RomenyF
  • 25L. ZeefuikF
Substitutes
  • 33KaylenG
  • 1L. KoopmansG
  • 15N. de GrootD
  • 35K. van BurgstedenM
  • 20E. MichutM
  • 22S. ZandM
  • 38M. GbemouM
  • 39G. BuyukhanM
  • 9A. DescotteF
Coach: Danny Buijs
Cambuur 4-3-3
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 6J. AmofaD
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 9S. VinkM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 29I. HenstraF
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
  • 11I. HamacheF
Substitutes
  • 21J. MeijsterG
  • 24M. Kalisvaart
  • 14R. van de PavertM
  • 33B. VogelzangD
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 15F. KvamF
  • 18W. van der HeideM
  • 17E. ApkakouM
Coach: Johan Plat

Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur

Fortuna Sittard

  • D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026

Cambuur

  • L0-4Excelsior7 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Fortuna Sittard63121214-210
15Cambuur6114918-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur

  • 15 August 2026Fortuna Sittard 3–1 CambuurEredivisie
  • 29 January 2023Cambuur 1–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 20 August 2022Fortuna Sittard 1–4 CambuurEredivisie
  • 26 February 2022Cambuur 2–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 16 October 2021Fortuna Sittard 1–0 CambuurEredivisie
  • 19 December 2018Fortuna Sittard 2–1 CambuurKNVB Beker

Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur

Fortuna Sittard

  • M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
  • L. Zeefuik3 goals1 assists

Cambuur

  • R. El Arguioui4 goals
  • I. Hamache3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.