Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Piast Gliwice 3-4 Wieczysta Kraków.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Piast Gliwice, 21% draw, 19% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 75D. Gril
- 28F. Borowski
- 5Juande
- 4J. Czerwinski
- 36J. Lewicki
- 90I. Lima
- 31O. Lesniak
- 27J. Labojko
- 7J. Felix
- 80H. Vallejo
- 19S. Ntamack
- 12M. Mendes-Dudzinski
- 99E. Twumasi
- 3E. Fikaj
- 15L. Pitan
- 77S. Mucha
- 18O. Maziarz
- 10A. Katsantonis
- 98J. Lokilo
- 11L. Sanca
- 1A. Mikulko
- 17K. Dankowski
- 24M. Wieteska
- 16A. Milic
- 27M. Vojtko
- 70P. Pusic
- 20M. Maigaard
- 12L. Piazon
- 7L. Semedo
- 10T. Christensen
- 97T. Mras
- 26N. Cavlina
- 4K. Fila
- 55D. Dujmovic
- 15A. Djermanovic
- 13K. Zagrodzki
- 8B. Lederman
- 11N. Knezevic
- 88C. Lungoyi
- 23Miki Villar
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków
Piast Gliwice
- L0-3away to Lech Poznan9 August 2026
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- L1-2Lech Poznan1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków
- 15 August 2026Piast Gliwice 3–4 Wieczysta KrakówEkstraklasa
- 26 September 2023Wieczysta Kraków 0–4 Piast GliwiceCup
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assists
- Hugo Vallejo3 goals
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.