15 August 2026, 16:45 UTC

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Utrecht, 24% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Utrecht at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Utrecht0%Draw1%AZ Alkmaar99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Artem Stepanov
23'
45'
⚽P. Koopmeiners
Ferdinand Pohl
46'
🔁M. Eerdhuijzenout: M. Didden
46'
47'
⚽Weslley Patatiassist: K. Smit
49'
⚽M. Meerdinkassist: M. Chavez Garcia
Guus Offerhaus
54'
🔁D. de Witout: K. Paredes
55'
56'
Weslley Patati
🔁Y. Cathlineout: D. van den Berg
62'
🔁F. Pohlout: A. Blake
62'
⚽A. Stepanovassist: Y. Cathline
62'
66'
🔁Weslley Patatiout: C. Stengs
Arthur Zagre
69'
🔁A. Zagreout: N. Ogidi Nwankwo
80'
80'
🔁K. Smitout: R. Ichihara
81'
🔁R. Daalout: A. Oufkir
84'
⚽A. Oufkirassist: M. Chavez Garcia
85'
🔁P. Koopmeinersout: S. Maikuma
89'
Mateo Chávez

Match stats — Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

48%Possession52%
8Shots24
2On target9
3Corners9
0.83xG1.93

Goals against chances

Utrecht1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth
AZ Alkmaar4 from 1.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Utrecht 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 23N. VesterlundD
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 44M. EerdhuijzenD
  • 92A. ZagreD
  • 53F. PohlM
  • 6G. OfferhausM
  • 11A. AlarconM
  • 20D. de WitM
  • 10Y. CathlineM
  • 18A. StepanovF
Substitutes
  • 25M. BrouwerG
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 8J. van OvereemM
  • 14Z. IqbalM
  • 34D. van den BergM
  • 30K. ParedesM
Coach: Anthony Correia
AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 16L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. Chavez GarciaD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 7Weslley PatatiM
  • 10K. SmitM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 35M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 12H. VerhulstG
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 18R. IchiharaD
  • 23B. van DuijlD
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 75H. de WitM
  • 33M. SinM
  • 27S. van DuijnF
Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Form going into Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

Utrecht

  • L1-2away to Groningen9 August 2026

AZ Alkmaar

  • W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Utrecht61231119-85
2AZ Alkmaar6510176+1116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

  • 15 August 2026Utrecht 1–4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 1 March 2026Utrecht 2–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 26 October 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 18 January 2025Utrecht 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 29 September 2024AZ Alkmaar 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 19 May 2024AZ Alkmaar 3–3 UtrechtEredivisie

Leading scorers: Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar

Utrecht

  • Artem Stepanov5 goals

AZ Alkmaar

  • R. Daal4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.