1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Falkirk vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result

Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Falkirk 2-0 Celtic.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Falkirk, 24% draw, 53% Celtic — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celtic at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Falkirk99%Draw1%Celtic0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ethan Ross
3'
🔁Ryan Strainout: Jack McMillan
5'
Owen Eames
35'
35'
Haissem Hassan
⚽Scott Tanserassist: Owen Eames
38'
45'
🔁Callum Osmandout: James Forrest
•Jacob Murrell
50'
62'
James Forrest
65'
🔁Alex Oxlade-Chamberlainout: Benjamin Nygren
65'
🔁Camilo Duranout: Kasper Hogh
🔁Scott Tanserout: Connor Allan
66'
68'
Liam Scales
🔁Ethan Rossout: Calvin Fodrey
73'
🔁Finley Frank Barbrookout: Finn Yeats
73'
🔁Owen Eamesout: Conor McLeod
73'
84'
🔁Haissem Hassanout: Sebastian Tounekti
84'
🔁Mika Baurout: Luke McCowan

Match stats — Falkirk vs Celtic

30%Possession70%
6Shots24
2On target9
0Corners14
1.06xG2.83

Goals against chances

Falkirk2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Celtic0 from 2.83 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 17S. TanserD
  • 21D. MeļņiksM
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
  • 42Owen EamesM
  • 24J. MurrellF
Substitutes
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 20C. AllanD
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 27C. McLeodM
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 10C. SibbaldM
  • 14F. YeatsM
Coach: J. McGlynn
Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 23H. HassanM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 19C. OsmandM
  • 11C. DuránF
Substitutes
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 8B. NygrenF
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 29Shumaira MheukaF
  • 14L. McCowanM
  • 9K. HøghF
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 12L. EmenaloD
  • 17S. TounektiF
Coach: M. O'Neill

Form going into Falkirk vs Celtic

Falkirk

Premiership

  • W1-0away to Aberdeen28 October 2026
  • W3-0Kilmarnock24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026

Celtic

Premiership

  • D2-2Dundee United28 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hibernian25 October 2026
  • W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Falkirk136342014+621
1Celtic1310122810+1831

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Celtic

  • 29 August 2026Celtic 2–1 FalkirkPremiership
  • 25 April 2026Celtic 3–1 FalkirkPremiership
  • 1 February 2026Celtic 2–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 14 January 2026Falkirk 0–1 CelticPremiership
  • 29 October 2025Celtic 4–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 15 August 2025Celtic 4–1 FalkirkLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Falkirk and Celtic

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

  • J. Murrell70

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán76
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Falkirk beat Celtic 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Celtic at 53% and given a win for Falkirk 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ethan Ross 3' for Falkirk, Scott Tanser 38' for Falkirk. On expected goals it finished 1.06–2.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Falkirk a 58.1% chance to finish in the top six: 67.6% after a win, 58.0% after a draw, 55.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.6%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.

For Celtic the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 75.2% going in: 78.5% after a win, 72.3% after a draw, 69.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.8%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Falkirk v Celtic has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 20% / 23% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 23% / 24% / 53%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Falkirk win23%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Celtic win53%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.