31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Motherwell vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result

Fir Park, Motherwell
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Motherwell 1-0 St Mirren.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Motherwell, 26% draw, 21% St Mirren — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Motherwell at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motherwell97%Draw3%St Mirren0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Joe Hodge
38'
50'
Marcus Fraser
51'
Ryan Carr
59'
🔁Eseosa Suleout: Jake Young
59'
🔁Ryan Carrout: Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares
Martin Moormann
60'
🔁Joe Hodgeout: Oscar Priestman
65'
🔁Jardell Kangaout: Regan Charles-Cook
65'
72'
🔁Luke Thomasout: Declan John
🔁Tawanda Maswanhiseout: Callum Hendry
73'
🔁Sebastian Palmer-Houldenout: Eythor Bjørgolfsson
73'
•Regan Charles-Cook
79'
⚽Lukas Fadinger (pen)
82'
85'
🔁Henry Fieldsonout: Chris Mochrie
86'
Alexander Gogić
Regan Charles-Cook
89'
Emmanuel Longelo
90'
90+1'
Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares
90+2'
Killian Phillips
🔁Ibrahim Saidout: Paul McGinn
90+3'

Match stats — Motherwell vs St Mirren

52%Possession48%
11Shots5
2On target1
6Corners3
2.36xG0.23

Goals against chances

Motherwell1 from 2.36 xGless than the chances were worth
St Mirren0 from 0.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45M. EmmanuelD
  • 71J. HodgeM
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
  • 19I. SaidM
  • 13J. KangaM
  • 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Substitutes
  • 15E. Björgólfs­sonF
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
  • 14C. HendryF
  • 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
  • 63D. LevittM
  • 21M. ConnellyG
  • 6J. McGheeD
  • 16P. McGinnD
  • 12O. PriestmanM
Coach: Alfred Johansson
St Mirren 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. ChapmanG
  • 22M. FraserD
  • 13A. GogićD
  • 53Henry FieldsonD
  • 47C. RamsayM
  • 8R. CarrM
  • 30F. TaylorM
  • 16L. ThomasM
  • 88K. PhillipsM
  • 48P. NsioM
  • 9Eseosa SuleF
Substitutes
  • 4L. DonnellyM
  • 6Louis JacksonD
  • 3D. JohnD
  • 37C. McEvoyM
  • 23C. MochrieM
  • 10SamuM
  • 2J. RichardsonD
  • 20J. YoungF
  • 35Grant TamoseviciusG
Coach: Craig McLeish

Form going into Motherwell vs St Mirren

Motherwell

Premiership

  • D2-2away to St Johnstone28 October 2026
  • L0-2Heart of Midlothian25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026

St Mirren

Premiership

  • D1-1Hibernian28 October 2026
  • W2-1Dundee24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Motherwell133461521-613
8St Mirren134271222-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs St Mirren

  • 30 August 2026St Mirren 3–3 MotherwellPremiership
  • 21 February 2026St Mirren 0–5 MotherwellPremiership
  • 3 January 2026Motherwell 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
  • 1 November 2025Motherwell 1–4 St MirrenLeague Cup
  • 9 August 2025St Mirren 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 15 March 2025Motherwell 2–2 St MirrenPremiership

Leading scorers: Motherwell and St Mirren

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

St Mirren

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motherwell beat St Mirren 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Motherwell at 53%. The goal: Lukas Fadinger (penalty) 82' for Motherwell. On expected goals it finished 2.36–0.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Motherwell a 33.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.6% after a win, 36.0% after a draw, 43.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.6%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

For St Mirren the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 36.8% after a win, 46.7% after a draw, 53.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 53.3%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Motherwell v St Mirren has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Motherwell's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Motherwell win53%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. St Mirren win21%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.