Liverpool vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Liverpool, 28% draw, 44% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Arsenal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 9A. IsakF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 67L. KoumasF
- 23Víctor MuñozF
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 3W. EndoM
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 2J. GomezD
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 1David RayaG
- 12J. TimberD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 20N. MaduekeM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 13KepaG
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 4B. WhiteD
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 10E. EzeM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
Form going into Liverpool vs Arsenal
Liverpool
Premier League
- W2-0Brighton25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
Arsenal
Premier League
- W2-0Everton24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Liverpool
Arsenal and Liverpool have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
Arsenal won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Premier LeagueLiverpool 0–1 Arsenal - 8 Jan 2026
Premier LeagueArsenal 0–0 Liverpool - 31 Aug 2025
Premier LeagueLiverpool 1–0 Arsenal - 11 May 2025
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–2 Arsenal - 27 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–2 Liverpool - 31 Jul 2024
Friendlies ClubsLiverpool 2–1 Arsenal - 4 Feb 2024
Premier LeagueArsenal 3–1 Liverpool
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Arsenal's attack rates 3% above Liverpool's, and Arsenal concede 32% fewer than Liverpool. That gives Arsenal the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Arsenal
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal won 1–0 at Liverpool. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arsenal at 44%. The goal: Kai Havertz 16' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Liverpool a 56.5% chance to finish in the top four: 62.5% after a win, 57.3% after a draw, 52.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.8%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
For Arsenal the question was the chance to win the league, 55.5% going in: 60.3% after a win, 53.1% after a draw, 48.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.3%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Liverpool v Arsenal has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Liverpool win28%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Arsenal win44%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.