Aberdeen vs Hibernian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Aberdeen 0-4 Hibernian.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Aberdeen, 29% draw, 32% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aberdeen at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aberdeen vs Hibernian
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27M. MüllerG
- 2N. DevlinD
- 22J. MilneD
- 26D. HappeD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 25C. RonanM
- 32A. AremuM
- 14H. MahouM
- 8B. LyonsM
- 7Tony YoganeM
- 15K. NisbetF
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 10A. BriedlM
- 3M. FrameD
- 30D. KleinG
- 40F. MarshallM
- 21G. MolloyD
- 31M. NteloF
- 20T. OlusanyaF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 1R. SallingerG
- 25F. PasslackD
- 6J. KerrD
- 5M. IvezićD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 11J. NewellM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 17J. McGrathM
- 10M. BoyleM
- 7O. EldingF
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 39R. MatondoM
- 13J. SmithG
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 12Alex WilliamsD
- 23C. WrightM
- 19N. CaddenM
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 34Z. BruceM
Form going into Aberdeen vs Hibernian
Aberdeen
Premiership
- L0-1Falkirk28 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dundee United24 October 2026
- W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
- L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026
Hibernian
Premiership
- D1-1away to St Mirren28 October 2026
- L1-2Celtic25 October 2026
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
What these results say
- Aberdeen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hibernian did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
- 19 September 2026Hibernian 1–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 11 April 2026Aberdeen 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 30 December 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 26 October 2025Aberdeen 1–2 HibernianPremiership
- 26 April 2025Aberdeen 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 1 February 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and Hibernian
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hibernian won 4–0 at Aberdeen. The model had leaned towards a win for Aberdeen at 39% and given a win for Hibernian 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jamie McGrath 57' for Hibernian, Callum·Wright 79' for Hibernian, Nicky Cadden 87' for Hibernian, Thibault Klidjé 90+3' for Hibernian. On expected goals it finished 0.99–2.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aberdeen a 40.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.5% after a win, 41.3% after a draw, 47.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.4%, 7.2 points higher than before the match.
For Hibernian the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.1% going in: 29.9% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.9%, 9.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aberdeen v Hibernian has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Aberdeen's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Aberdeen win39%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Hibernian win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.