2 November 2026, 20:15 UTC

GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga prediction & result

Barcelos
Referee: Helder Carvalho
Full time0 – 0

Final score: GIL Vicente 0-0 Vitória SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% GIL Vicente, 31% draw, 28% Vitória SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

GIL Vicente at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GIL Vicente3%Draw94%Vitória SC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Santiago García González
40'
Ricardo Esgaio
54'
60'
Toni Borevković
75'
🔁Arnel Jakupovićout: Alioune Ndoye
🔁Walace Françaout: Mohamed Kaba
76'
🔁Tidjany Chabrol Toureout: Joelson Fernandes
76'
76'
🔁Fábio Samuel Amorim Silvaout: Alan de Souza Guimarães
🔁Andreas Lausenout: Guilherme Gomes
76'
🔁Diogo Priosteout: Jose Carlos Natario Ferreira
84'
🔁José Silvaout: Weverson
84'
90'
🔁Beni Mukendiout: Lohann Doucet
90'
🔁Gustavo Silvaout: Miguel Nogueira

Match stats — GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC

48%Possession52%
10Shots11
1On target2
2Corners3
0.73xG0.48

Goals against chances

GIL Vicente0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth
Vitória SC0 from 0.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucãoG
  • 2José SilvaD
  • 47Ricardo EsgaioD
  • 39Jonathan BuatuD
  • 45David MoreiraD
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
  • 77MuriloM
  • 10Santi GarcíaM
  • 7T. TouréM
  • 9WalaceF
Substitutes
  • 32M. FernándezM
  • 19GuilhermeM
  • 15Malick GningD
  • 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
  • 11Joelson FernandesF
  • 27A. MoreiraF
  • 26WeversonD
  • 6Zé CarlosM
  • 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
Coach: Luís Pinto
Vitória SC 4-2-3-1
  • 98Lucas FurtadoG
  • 23T. StrataD
  • 21T. BorevkovićD
  • 5A. SidibéD
  • 13João MendesD
  • 16BeniM
  • 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
  • 11GustavoM
  • 20SamuM
  • 7O. CamaraM
  • 9A. JakupovicF
Substitutes
  • 44L. DoucetM
  • 2Miguel MagaD
  • 19V. AnderssonM
  • 40Mohammed KebdaniD
  • 6M. MitrovićM
  • 24A. NdoyeF
  • 29V. OuotroF
  • 4Óscar RivasD
  • 48O. ZychG
Coach: Tiago Margarido

Form going into GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC

GIL Vicente

Primeira Liga

  • L0-1FC Porto24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to SC Braga19 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026

Vitória SC

Primeira Liga

  • W5-0Maritimo23 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
  • D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7GIL Vicente11533108+218
14Vitória SC112361112-19

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC

GIL Vicente and Vitória SC have met 7 times in the records we hold, Vitória SC has won 4 of them to GIL Vicente's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

They drew 0–0 at GIL Vicente on 2 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
GIL Vicente12429
Vitória SC42192

Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 2 Nov 2026
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 0–0 Vitória SC
  • 18 Apr 2026
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 0–1 Vitória SC
  • 8 Dec 2025
    Primeira Liga    Vitória SC 0–0 GIL Vicente
  • 11 Apr 2025
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 0–1 Vitória SC
  • 2 Dec 2024
    Primeira Liga    Vitória SC 4–0 GIL Vicente
  • 8 Feb 2024
    Taça de Portugal    Vitória SC 3–1 GIL Vicente
  • 28 Jan 2024
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 1–0 Vitória SC

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and GIL Vicente concede 15% fewer than Vitória SC. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
GIL Vicente0.810.87
Vitória SC0.831.02

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

GIL Vicente and Vitória SC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for GIL Vicente at 41% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.73–0.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vitória SC a 6.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.2% after a win, 6.4% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 6.4%.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on GIL Vicente v Vitória SC has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 44% / 31% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 31% / 28%: the biggest move is GIL Vicente's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. GIL Vicente win41%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Vitória SC win28%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.