Farense vs Benfica B Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Farense 2-3 Benfica B.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Farense, 29% draw, 35% Benfica B — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Farense at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Farense vs Benfica B
Line-ups
- 97F. BuntićG
- 78Alex PintoD
- 37Gonçalo SilvaD
- 44N. ZolotićD
- 6Derick PoloniD
- 10S. SinghM
- 29Cláudio FalcãoM
- 27Mattheus OliveiraM
- 17André CandeiasF
- 89João GastãoF
- 7João ResendeF
- 70VictorF
- 99Edi SemedoF
- 88Rafael TeixeiraM
- 15J. Diazongua NfiniguiM
- 8Miguel MeninoM
- 50P. KauaG
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 5Rodrigo BorgesD
- 43Dário MirandaD
- 51A. VoitinoviÄiusG
- 78D. SoaresD
- 55João Carvalho FonsecaD
- 33Gabriel IndioD
- 62J. NetoD
- 60Nuno FélixM
- 76R. QuintasM
- 77Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraF
- 54Francisco NetoF
- 91Francisco SilvaF
- 87Peter EdokpolorF
- 74O. TomeF
- 81Stevan ManuelM
- 80G. SobralG
- 79T. SoaresF
- 94Rui SilvaD
- 73Miguel FigueiredoM
- 85Martim Maria FerreiraM
- 71F. ColettaM
- 93diego coelho
Form going into Farense vs Benfica B
Farense
Segunda Liga
- D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa1 November 2026
- L1-4Penafiel24 October 2026
- W2-1Feirense11 October 2026
- W4-0Chaves4 October 2026
Benfica B
Segunda Liga
- W3-1Chaves31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Feirense24 October 2026
- W1-0Felgueiras 193212 October 2026
- W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026
What these results say
- Farense scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Farense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Farense had three goals or more.
- Benfica B went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Benfica B won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Benfica B scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Farense | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 3 | Benfica B | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Farense vs Benfica B
- 22 March 2026Benfica B 1–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 2 November 2025Farense 4–3 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 19 May 2023Benfica B 0–1 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 15 January 2023Farense 5–2 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 21 February 2022Benfica B 3–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 19 September 2021Farense 2–2 Benfica BSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Farense and Benfica B
Farense
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Silva10
- S. Singh10
Benfica B
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica B won 3–2 at Farense. The model had leaned towards a win for Farense at 36% and given a win for Benfica B 35%. The goals: Derick Poloni 7' for Farense, Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira 44' for Benfica B, Joao·Resende 52' for Farense, Olivio Tomé 55' for Benfica B, Olivio Tomé 90+3' for Benfica B.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Farense a 15.7% chance to finish in the top three: 19.4% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 11.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
For Benfica B the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 45.0% going in: 52.4% after a win, 43.3% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.4%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Farense v Benfica B has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Farense's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Farense win36%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Benfica B win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.