8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Sporting CP B vs Tondela Segunda Liga prediction & result

CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira, Alcochete
Referee: Carlos Macedo
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sporting CP B 1-1 Tondela.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sporting CP B, 27% draw, 24% Tondela — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP B at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting CP B5%Draw92%Tondela3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Jose Ricardo
26'
⚽Antonio Tomane
🔁Salvador Blopaout: Ivanildo da Silva Mendes
46'
⚽Mateo Tanlongo
60'
61'
🔁Arjen Van Der Heideout: Xabier Huarte Armendáriz
61'
🔁Hugo Félixout: Tiago Dias
70'
🔁Rodrigo Cascavelout: Gaston Novero
70'
🔁Hélder Tavaresout: Sphephelo Sithole
Lucas Taibo
73'
85'
🔁Jose Ricardoout: ian kamga
🔁Rodrigo Rodriguesout: Kauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto
87'
🔁Paulo Cardosoout: Micael Sanha
87'
🔁Rafael Nelout: Gabriel Silva
90'
🔁Mauro Coutoout: Bidu
90'

Match stats — Sporting CP B vs Tondela

60%Possession40%
8Shots9
2On target3
8Corners3

Line-ups

Sporting CP B 4-2-3-1
  • 99Francisco SilvaG
  • 70Salvador BlopaD
  • 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
  • 95Lucas TaiboD
  • 50Rodrigo DiasD
  • 40M. TanlongoM
  • 96Samuel JustoM
  • 76Rodrigo RodriguesM
  • 78Mauro CoutoF
  • 87Paulo CardosoM
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
Substitutes
  • 74Guilherme PiresG
  • 46W. LodmellG
  • 85Rafael MotaD
  • 45D. CoxiD
  • 59Kauã OliveiraM
  • 62I. da Silva MendesM
  • 83Z. BafdiliM
  • 88BiduF
  • 47M. SanhaF
Coach: Tiago Fernandes
Tondela 4-2-3-1
  • 28CarlosG
  • 15CarraçaD
  • 4Christian MarquesD
  • 23B. MedinaD
  • 12Zé RicardoD
  • 8Hélder TavaresM
  • 37SararáM
  • 26A. van der HeideF
  • 20Hugo FélixM
  • 7CascavelM
  • 19TómanéF
Substitutes
  • 2BebetoM
  • 77Tiago DiasD
  • 9João LimaF
  • 17G. NoveroF
  • 14Xabi HuarteM
  • 13S. SitholeM
  • 11Alves Richarllyson CarvalhoF
  • 10H. AddoF
  • 5João AfonsoD
Coach: Ricardo Costa

Form going into Sporting CP B vs Tondela

Sporting CP B

Segunda Liga

  • W2-1away to Leixoes31 October 2026
  • W3-0Portimonense24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vizela10 October 2026
  • L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026

Tondela

Segunda Liga

  • W3-2Felgueiras 19321 November 2026
  • L1-2away to AVS25 October 2026
  • W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Sporting CP B scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting CP B won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Sporting CP B had three goals or more.
  • Tondela scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Tondela won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Sporting CP B10712168+822
7Tondela105141311+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Sporting CP B and Tondela

Sporting CP B

GoalsAssists

  • Mauro Couto10
  • Paulo Cardoso10

Tondela

GoalsAssists

  • Cascavel10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting CP B and Tondela drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP B at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Antonio Tomane 26' for Tondela, Mateo Tanlongo 60' for Sporting CP B.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sporting CP B a 60.2% chance to finish in the top three: 65.7% after a win, 57.2% after a draw, 50.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 57.2%, 3 points lower than before the match.

For Tondela the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 14.7% going in: 20.1% after a win, 14.7% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.7%.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sporting CP B v Tondela has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Sporting CP B's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Sporting CP B win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Tondela win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.