14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

DC United vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result

Audi Field, Washington
Referee: Guido Gonzales Jr
Full time2 – 1

Final score: DC United 2-1 New York Red Bulls.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% DC United, 28% draw, 32% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

DC United at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

DC United95%Draw5%New York Red Bulls0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tai Baribo (pen)
5'
19'
Devin Padelford
Lucas Bartlett
22'
Jackson Hopkins
29'
⚽Silvan Heftiassist: Tai Baribo
45+5'
🔁Jackson Hopkinsout: João Gabriel Martins Peglow
56'
🔁Oscar Avilezout: Jared Stroud
56'
57'
🔁Justin Cheout: Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
57'
🔁Cade Cowellout: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
57'
🔁Adri Mehmetiout: Emil Forsberg
57'
🔁Jorge Ruvalcabaout: Cameron Harper
67'
Dylan Nealis
Lucas Bartlett
68'
🔁Brandon Servaniaout: Sean Nealis
70'
71'
⚽Eric Maxim Choupo-Motingassist: Emil Forsberg
73'
Ronald Donkor
78'
🔁Ronald Donkorout: Sekou Kone

Match stats — DC United vs New York Red Bulls

26%Possession74%
4Shots24
3On target6
3Corners11
1.31xG2.81

Goals against chances

DC United2 from 1.31 xGmore than the chances were worth
New York Red Bulls1 from 2.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

DC United 4-3-3
  • 1S. JohnsonG
  • 5S. HeftiD
  • 3L. BartlettD
  • 15K. RowlesD
  • 6K. KurokawaD
  • 2K. NonoM
  • 21A. DozzellM
  • 23B. ServaniaM
  • 32O. AvilezF
  • 9T. BariboF
  • 25J. HopkinsF
Substitutes
  • 8J. StroudM
  • 4M. PeltolaD
  • 22N. OrdazF
  • 13S. NealisD
  • 26A. BonoG
  • 7PeglowF
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 48Gavin TurnerM
  • 40K. CastilloM
Coach: R. Weiler
New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 12D. NealisD
  • 2J. CheD
  • 14J. BazánD
  • 59D. PadelfordD
  • 48R. DonkorM
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 37M. SofoM
  • 11J. RuvalcabaF
  • 16J. HallF
  • 7C. CowellF
Substitutes
  • 45C. FaelloD
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
  • 13E. Choupo-MotingF
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 17C. HarperF
  • 60S. KoneM
  • 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 79R. MosqueraF
Coach: Michael Bradley

Form going into DC United vs New York Red Bulls

DC United

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
  • L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
  • D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
  • W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026

New York Red Bulls

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
  • L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
  • W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026

What these results say

  • DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14DC United34712153961-2233
10New York Red Bulls34126164862-1442

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: DC United vs New York Red Bulls

  • 22 April 2026New York Red Bulls 4–4 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 24 May 2025DC United 0–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 19 April 2025New York Red Bulls 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 25 January 2025New York Red Bulls 1–1 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 June 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: DC United and New York Red Bulls

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo161

New York Red Bulls

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

DC United beat New York Red Bulls 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for DC United at 40%. The goals: Tai Baribo (penalty) 5' for DC United, Silvan Hefti 45+5' for DC United, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 71' for New York Red Bulls. Sent off: Lucas Bartlett (DC United) 68'. On expected goals it finished 1.31–2.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave DC United a 42.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.7% after a win, 46.6% after a draw, 56.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.7%, 14.4 points lower than before the match.

For New York Red Bulls the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.6% going in: under 1% after a win, 3.0% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.