18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Referee: Dario Bel
Full time1 – 0

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% HNK Hajduk Split, 29% draw, 23% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Hajduk Split97%Draw3%NK Varazdin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
🔁elvir durakovicout: Gregor Sikošek
Dario Marešić
33'
58'
Tomislav Duvnjak
🔁Andelo Šutaloout: Abdoulie Sanyang
58'
63'
🔁Tomislav Duvnjakout: David Puclin
63'
🔁Petar Bočkajout: Emmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya
63'
Aleksa Latkovic
🔁Dario Melnjakout: Simun Hrgovic
65'
🔁Marko Livajaout: Michele Šego
66'
🔁Alberto del Moralout: Adrion Pajaziti
66'
🔁marin soticekout: Adam Huram
74'
76'
🔁luka mamicout: Ivan Posavec
76'
🔁Aleksa Latkovicout: Luka Skaricic
⚽Mathieu Acapandieassist: Abdoulie Sanyang
86'
Adrion Pajaziti
90'

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin

64%Possession36%
18Shots7
6On target1
5Corners3
1.43xG1.25

Goals against chances

HNK Hajduk Split1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
NK Varazdin0 from 1.25 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilićG
  • 22M. AcapandiéD
  • 6D. HadžikadunićD
  • 15D. MarešićD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 9DaliM
  • 23M. ŠotičekM
  • 10M. LivajaF
Substitutes
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 3Roko GabrićD
  • 32Š. HrgovićD
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 77Carlos MartínF
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 7A. SanyangF
  • 44D. StipicaG
Coach: Gonzalo García
NK Varazdin 4-1-4-1
  • 33J. SilićG
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepšićD
  • 3E. DurakovićD
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 12P. BočkajM
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 22L. MamićM
  • 38Iuri TavaresM
  • 10A. LatkovićF
Substitutes
  • 5Sven LesjakD
  • 17V. AkrapF
  • 11E. UchegbuF
  • 9S. JurićF
  • 19L. LukanićM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 1R. McCrorieG
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 6D. PuclinM
Coach: N. Šafarić

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin

HNK Hajduk Split

HNL

  • W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026

NK Varazdin

HNL

  • W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629
5NK Varazdin135441714+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin

  • 2 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 3 May 2026HNK Hajduk Split 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 28 February 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 29 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 13 September 2025NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 18 April 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split beat NK Varazdin 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 48%. The goal: Mathieu Acapandie 86' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Hajduk Split a 25.4% chance to win the league: 28.2% after a win, 23.3% after a draw, 20.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For NK Varazdin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.0% going in: 84.0% after a win, 77.9% after a draw, 74.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.6%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 29% / 23%: the biggest move is HNK Hajduk Split's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. HNK Hajduk Split win48%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. NK Varazdin win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.