18 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

ML Vitebsk vs Neman Premier League prediction & result

Vitebsk CSK, Vitebsk
Full time1 – 0

Final score: ML Vitebsk 1-0 Neman.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% ML Vitebsk, 26% draw, 20% Neman — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ML Vitebsk at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ML Vitebsk99%Draw1%Neman0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Artem Kontsevoyassist: Pavel Pavlyuchenko
27'
🔁Sergei Balanovichout: Yan Skibsky
56'
🔁Denilho Cleoniseout: Radivoj Bosić
56'
64'
🔁Danu Spătaruout: Anton Suchkov
64'
🔁Pavel Savitskiyout: Andrija Ratkovic
🔁Aleksandar Mesarovicout: Silas Gnaka
68'
🔁Valeri Gromykoout: Timur Ivanov
68'
80'
Yuri Pantya
82'
Igor Kovalevich
88'
🔁Andrey Yakimovout: alexey dayneka
88'
🔁Dmitri Girsout: Yuri Pavlyukovets
🔁Artem Kontsevoyout: M. Bulanov
90'

Match stats — ML Vitebsk vs Neman

55%Possession45%
5Shots5
3On target1
2Corners3

Line-ups

ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 23S. BalanovichD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 4A. OdeM
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 10D. CleoniseF
  • 80A. KontsevoyF
  • 27A. MesarovićF
Substitutes
  • 90I. GrudkoF
  • 8S. GnakaM
  • 99M. BulanovF
  • 12R. BosićM
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 5M. MohammadiD
  • 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
Coach: Juan Díaz
Neman 4-2-3-1
  • 16N. MatysyukG
  • 55D. GirsD
  • 4A. VasiljevD
  • 20I. SadovnichiyD
  • 8Y. PanteaD
  • 47M. KozlovM
  • 24A. YakimovM
  • 15O. EvdokimovM
  • 9S. PushnyakovM
  • 33D. SpătaruM
  • 88P. SavitskiyF
Substitutes
  • 19A. DaynekoM
  • 22I. KirkoD
  • 1A. MalievskiyG
  • 6A. NazarenkoM
  • 32Y. PavlyukovetsM
  • 7A. RatkovićF
  • 2V. TonkevichD
  • 23T. YormieM
  • 17A. SuchkovM
Coach: I. Kovalevich

Form going into ML Vitebsk vs Neman

ML Vitebsk

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Torpedo Zhodino15 October 2026
  • W5-1away to FC Gomel11 October 2026
  • W1-0Borac Banja Luka13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Borac Banja Luka6 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Sutjeska30 July 2026

Neman

Premier League

  • W2-0away to Bate Borisov14 October 2026

What these results say

  • ML Vitebsk won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1ML Vitebsk2818826119+4262
5Neman2815493526+949

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ML Vitebsk vs Neman

  • 30 May 2026Neman 1–2 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 28 February 2026ML Vitebsk 2–2 NemanSuper Cup
  • 20 September 2025Neman 3–1 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 3 May 2025ML Vitebsk 1–0 NemanPremier League
  • 9 February 2024Neman 0–0 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

ML Vitebsk beat Neman 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for ML Vitebsk at 54%. The goal: Artem Kontsevoy 27' for ML Vitebsk. Sent off: Yuri Pantya (Neman) 80', Igor Kovalevich (Neman) 82'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ML Vitebsk a 57.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 66.2% after a win, 46.8% after a draw, 37.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.2%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

For Neman the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 37.9% going in: 58.1% after a win, 40.7% after a draw, 31.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.3%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ML Vitebsk v Neman has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 50% / 28% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is ML Vitebsk's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. ML Vitebsk win54%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Neman win20%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.