23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

NAC Breda vs Heracles Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
Full time1 – 1

Final score: NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% NAC Breda, 24% draw, 49% Heracles — fair odds of 3.70, 4.17 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Heracles at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NAC Breda4%Draw90%Heracles6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Sem Scheperman
⚽Charles-Andreas Brym
11'
19'
⚽Tristan Van Gilst (pen)
🔁Charles-Andreas Brymout: Brahim Ghalidi
27'
29'
Djevencio van der Kust
39'
David Vicente
45'
🔁David Vicenteout: Mimeirhel Benita
67'
🔁Manny Rodriguez Balderaout: Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
68'
🔁Sem Schepermanout: Mario Borac
🔁Jannes Van Heckeout: Imran Nazih
76'
Kamal Sowah
80'
80'
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
🔁Moussa Soumanoout: Paul Gladon
82'
88'
🔁Tristan Van Gilstout: David Tomic
88'
🔁Chafik Abbasout: Mike te Wierik

Match stats — NAC Breda vs Heracles

52%Possession48%
9Shots10
2On target2
5Corners5
1.08xG1.41

Goals against chances

NAC Breda1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Heracles1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. VerripsG
  • 2B. LucassenD
  • 4L. GreimlD
  • 8F. Oldrup JensenD
  • 12J. Van den BerghD
  • 14K. SowahM
  • 6M. BalardM
  • 78J. Van HeckeM
  • 10M. NassohM
  • 28C. BrymM
  • 9M. SoumanoF
Substitutes
  • 5J. CandelariaD
  • 35M. BrouwersD
  • 55B. GhalidiF
  • 19P. GladonF
  • 23R. KortsmitG
  • 31K. LamprouG
  • 27Karim MperanyiF
  • 34I. NazihM
  • 11G. MisehouyM
Coach: R. Kruijs
Heracles 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. de KeijzerG
  • 15David VicenteD
  • 4D. MiraniD
  • 14M. WruschD
  • 25MannyD
  • 5D. van der KustM
  • 32S. SchepermanM
  • 7C. AbbasM
  • 17T. van GilstM
  • 18M. HauswirthM
  • 27J. N'djoliF
Substitutes
  • 10T. BrunsM
  • 35S. BultmanD
  • 8M. EngelsM
  • 16T. JansinkG
  • 2M. BenitaD
  • 9V. PopplerF
  • 11J. Reine-AdélaïdeM
  • 6D. TomićM
  • 33L. ZeevalkinkG
Coach: V. Heilmann

Form going into NAC Breda vs Heracles

NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026

Heracles

Eerste Divisie

  • W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4NAC Breda158432922+728
1Heracles1512214616+3038

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NAC Breda vs Heracles

  • 14 February 2026Heracles 0–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 29 October 2025NAC Breda 1–4 HeraclesKNVB Beker
  • 20 September 2025NAC Breda 2–1 HeraclesEredivisie
  • 31 January 2025NAC Breda 1–1 HeraclesEredivisie
  • 2 November 2024Heracles 2–0 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 12 May 2023NAC Breda 0–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: NAC Breda and Heracles

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Heracles

GoalsAssists

  • J. N'djoli143
  • T. van Gilst112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NAC Breda and Heracles drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Heracles at 49% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Charles-Andreas Brym 11' for NAC Breda, Tristan Van Gilst (penalty) 19' for Heracles. On expected goals it finished 1.08–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NAC Breda a 65.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 72.8% after a win, 66.7% after a draw, 61.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 66.7%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Heracles the question was the chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season, 88.1% going in: 91.3% after a win, 86.5% after a draw, 84.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 86.5%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.