Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 5-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 18% draw, 18% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 1.56, 5.56 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 64% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 98M. Dajsinani
- 28E. Sota
- 33E. Bitri
- 6A. Aleksi
- 22G. Jaime
- 20K. Loukili
- 7Fernando Medeiros
- 10A. Albanese
- 16E. Ndreca
- 2D. Adjessa
- 77I. Gruda
- 1L. Tandilashvili
- 12B. Puja
- 4Z. Aliyev
- 8I. Diabate
- 13A. Kacbufi
- 17A. Kryeziu
- 24N. Ajetovikj
- 29A. Yago
- 55G. Smajli
- 1E. McGinty
- 22T. Sobowale
- 4R. Lopes
- 3E. Stevens
- 11J. Mulraney
- 7D. Watts
- 8M. Healy
- 29J. Byrne
- 24W. Fitzgerald
- 10G. Burke
- 9A. Greene
- 25L. Steacy
- 41A. Noonan
- 5L. Grace
- 14D. Mandroiu
- 15M. Asamoah
- 17L. O'Regan
- 18J. Afolabi
- 19A. Brennan
- 26J. O'Sullivan
Form going into Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers4 August 2026
- D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026
- D3-3Celje22 July 2026
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-2Dundalk7 August 2026
- D0-0away to Drogheda United31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Shamrock Rovers in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 29 | +17 | 56 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Egnatia Rrogozhinë has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Premier Division
Head-to-head: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers
- 13 August 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë 5–1 Shamrock RoversUEFA Europa League
- 4 August 2026Shamrock Rovers 3–1 Egnatia RrogozhinëUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
No leading scorers listed yet.
Shamrock Rovers
- G. Burke7 goals1 assists
- M. Noonan6 goals
- J. McGovern5 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.