FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 Rot-Weiß Essen.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% FC Ingolstadt 04, 29% draw, 37% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rot-Weiß Essen at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Line-ups
- 47D. KleinG
- 34L. FrödeM
- 6G. AntzoulasD
- 15J. ScholzD
- 19L. RosenlöcherD
- 18K. BennettsF
- 14Max PlathM
- 37B. KanurićM
- 28N. VelupillayF
- 13L. LokotschF
- 10D. KayginM
- 7Seo Jong-MinM
- 41V. ŠapinaM
- 17O. UgonduF
- 20Y. DeichmannM
- 4Elias DeckerM
- 8F. CarlsenM
- 16J. GandaF
- 5Emre GülM
- 1M. PonathG
- 1J. GolzG
- 15ben huningD
- 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
- 37J. HofmannF
- 19F. BouebariD
- 22J. SietanM
- 11Noah PeschF
- 10M. ObuzF
- 17S. TelalovićF
- 18D. AbiamaF
- 20M. JanssenM
- 14L. BrummeD
- 26E. ÇelebiD
- 36J. GnagnonD
- 2M. KostkaM
- 40R. MalaebF
- 9J. PotoÄnikF
- 16R. ReisigD
- 35F. WienandG
- 32L. BazzoliM
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
FC Ingolstadt 04
3. Liga
- W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026
Rot-Weiß Essen
3. Liga
- W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- 11 April 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 4–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 8 November 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 22 February 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 21 September 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–2 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 28 April 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 4–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
Leading scorers: FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen
FC Ingolstadt 04
GoalsAssists
- O. Ugondu40
Rot-Weiß Essen
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Rot-Weiß Essen at 37% and given a win for FC Ingolstadt 04 34%. The goal: Jonas Scholz 47' for FC Ingolstadt 04.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Ingolstadt 04 a 9.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.3% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.3%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For Rot-Weiß Essen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 56.7% going in: 62.0% after a win, 56.0% after a draw, 50.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.