17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken 3. Liga prediction & result

Merkur Spiel-Arena
Referee: Leonidas Exuzidis
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 FC Saarbrücken.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 26% draw, 24% FC Saarbrücken — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fortuna Düsseldorf0%Draw5%FC Saarbrücken95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jordi Paulinaassist: Jorrit Hendrix
10'
13'
⚽Kai Brünkerassist: Niko Bretschneider
43'
Mladen cvjetinovic
50'
⚽Kelsey Owusuassist: Kai Brünker
58'
🔁Gokdeniz Gurpuzout: Alexander Staff
🔁Jomaine Consbruchout: Fabian Schleusener
63'
🔁Jordi Paulinaout: Philipp Förster
73'
🔁Jorrit Hendrixout: Miguel Fernandes Goncalves
73'
73'
🔁Kelsey Owusuout: Seung-joon Lee
🔁Andreas Müllerout: Lukas Bornschein
81'
🔁Erik Wekesserout: Sascha Risch
81'
82'
🔁Florian Pickout: Maurice Multhaup
82'
🔁Kai Brünkerout: Kaan Caliskaner
Lukas Bornschein
88'
90'
⚽Alexander Staffassist: Kaan Caliskaner
90+1'
Alexander Staff

Match stats — Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken

54%Possession46%
14Shots7
2On target6
8Corners6

Line-ups

Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-4-2
  • 22L. LordG
  • 2S. van der SlootD
  • 15T. OberdorfD
  • 44E .EgouliD
  • 7E. WekesserD
  • 38E. ArdenM
  • 6A. MüllerM
  • 8J. HendrixM
  • 14J. ConsbruchM
  • 9E. HottmannF
  • 27J. PaulinaF
Substitutes
  • 1L. RießG
  • 25M. ZimmermannD
  • 28S. RischD
  • 10P. FörsterM
  • 18M. GoncalvesM
  • 5Y. BouchamaM
  • 4L. BornscheinD
  • 16M. BengerM
  • 24F. SchleusenerF
Coach: A. Ende
FC Saarbrücken 4-4-2
  • 1M. BignettiG
  • 42P. FahrnerD
  • 21M. CvjetinovićD
  • 4S. VoetD
  • 28N. BretschneiderD
  • 20F. PickM
  • 5Daniel GleiberM
  • 8Gökdeniz GürpüzM
  • 31K. MeiselM
  • 9K. BrünkerF
  • 10C. KühlwetterF
Substitutes
  • 33K. BrollG
  • 3Anton BäuerleD
  • 14Z. ShuaibM
  • 15A. KamaraM
  • 16Lee Seung-JoonM
  • 11M. MulthaupM
  • 7C. RizzutoD
  • 29A. StaffF
  • 22K. CaliskanerM
Coach: Argirios Giannikis

Form going into Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken

Fortuna Düsseldorf

3. Liga

  • W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026

FC Saarbrücken

3. Liga

  • L2-4MSV Duisburg13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Fortuna Düsseldorf134451417-316
6FC Saarbrücken136253126+520

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken

  • 3 March 2020FC Saarbrücken 2–2 Fortuna DusseldorfDFB Pokal

Leading scorers: Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Saarbrücken

Fortuna Düsseldorf

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

FC Saarbrücken

GoalsAssists

  • K. Brünker51
  • F. Pick34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Saarbrücken won 3–1 at Fortuna Düsseldorf. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50% and given a win for FC Saarbrücken 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jordi Paulina 10' for Fortuna Düsseldorf, Kai Brünker 13' for FC Saarbrücken, Kelsey Owusu 50' for FC Saarbrücken, Alexander Staff 90' for FC Saarbrücken.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Düsseldorf a 43.5% chance to finish in the top four: 47.1% after a win, 40.7% after a draw, 35.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.0%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.

For FC Saarbrücken the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.6% going in: 17.3% after a win, 11.3% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.3%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fortuna Düsseldorf v FC Saarbrücken has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Fortuna Düsseldorf's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Fortuna Düsseldorf win50%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. FC Saarbrücken win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.