21 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

FC Juarez vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juarez
Referee: Katia García
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Juarez 0-1 Atlante FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Juarez, 27% draw, 36% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Juarez at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Juarez0%Draw4%Atlante FC96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
•Martín Sarrafiore
Rodrigo Dourado
37'
🔁Guilherme Castilhoout: Monchu
60'
🔁Rodrigo Douradoout: José Luis Rodríguez
60'
64'
Jhojan Julio
65'
🔁Luis Puenteout: Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa
65'
🔁Walter Portalesout: Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar
🔁Ricardo Oliveiraout: Luca Dupuy
70'
🔁Madson de Souza Silvaout: Brayan Adrián Molina Hernández
71'
73'
Edgar Jiménez
76'
⚽Juan Carreraassist: Martín Sarrafiore
Daniel Piña
78'
80'
🔁Edgar Jiménezout: Walter Clar
80'
🔁Jhojan Julioout: Daniel González
🔁Daniel Piñaout: Manuel Mayorga
80'
Leonardo Rodríguez Silva
85'
90'
🔁Martín Sarrafioreout: Maximiliano García
José Luis Rodríguez
90+4'

Match stats — FC Juarez vs Atlante FC

61%Possession39%
7Shots10
1On target3
8Corners9
0.42xG0.77

Goals against chances

FC Juarez0 from 0.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atlante FC1 from 0.77 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Juarez 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 5D. GarcíaD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 2G. SepúlvedaD
  • 26D. PiñaD
  • 183L. SilvaM
  • 13Rodrigo DouradoM
  • 9MadsonM
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 21RicardinhoM
  • 19Ó. EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 4A. MayorgaD
  • 23H. OrtegaD
  • 11J. RodríguezM
  • 6MonchuM
  • 20J. AquinoM
  • 201J. CarmonaM
  • 24B. DíazG
  • 14E. LópezD
  • 17L. Martínez DupuyF
Coach: T. Campos
Atlante FC 5-3-2
  • 1Ó. JiménezG
  • 29Walter PortalesD
  • 6J. N. CarreraD
  • 4E. TerceroD
  • 44A. QuirozD
  • 34E. JiménezD
  • 30M. SarrafioreM
  • 8E. PizzutoM
  • 19L. CalzadillaM
  • 9L. PuenteF
  • 7J. JulioF
Substitutes
  • 22R. BarraganG
  • 18C. BermúdezM
  • 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
  • 37W. ClarD
  • 25M. FernándezM
  • 13M. GarcíaM
  • 16José GonzálezM
  • 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
  • 3G. SánchezD
Coach: Miguel Herrera

Form going into FC Juarez vs Atlante FC

FC Juarez

Liga MX

  • L0-5away to Cruz Azul18 October 2026

Atlante FC

Liga MX

  • L1-2Pumas UNAM17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18FC Juarez1632111334-2111
16Atlante FC163581626-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Atlante FC

  • 28 June 2026FC Juarez 2–0 Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 October 2019FC Juarez 1–0 Atlante FCCopa MX
  • 14 August 2019Atlante FC 0–2 FC JuarezCopa MX
  • 7 April 2019Atlante FC 2–1 FC JuarezLiga de Expansión MX
  • 4 November 2018FC Juarez 2–3 Atlante FCLiga de Expansión MX
  • 4 March 2018FC Juarez 0–3 Atlante FCLiga de Expansión MX

The full FC Juarez vs Atlante FC record →

Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Atlante FC

FC Juarez

GoalsAssists

  • Ó. Estupiñán80

Atlante FC

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atlante FC won 1–0 at FC Juarez. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Juarez at 37% and given a win for Atlante FC 36%. The goal: Juan Carrera 76' for Atlante FC. On expected goals it finished 0.42–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlante FC a 59.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 42.7% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 74.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.7%, 16.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Juarez v Atlante FC has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is FC Juarez's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Juarez win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Atlante FC win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.