21 October 2026, 00:07 UTC

Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Referee: Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Necaxa.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Guadalajara Chivas, 20% draw, 14% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Guadalajara Chivas at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Miguel Rodriguez
🔁Leonel Calderón Oviedoout: Hugo Camberos
45'
45'
🔁Emilio Martínezout: Raúl Martínez
🔁Jordan Carrilloout: Santiago Sandoval
45'
54'
🔁Miguel Rodriguezout: Owen González
54'
🔁Juan Valenciaout: Julián Carranza
🔁Diego Campilloout: Bryan Gonzalez
61'
🔁Richard Ledezmaout: Kevin Castañeda
61'
🔁Efrain Alvarezout: Jesús Hernández
72'
⚽Agustin Oliveros (OG)
77'
78'
🔁Lorenzo Faravelliout: Joshua Alejandro Palacios Pulido
84'
🔁Diego Ochoaout: Miguel Pedroza

Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa

60%Possession40%
10Shots11
3On target4
9Corners5
0.76xG0.58

Goals against chances

Guadalajara Chivas1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Necaxa0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. RangelG
  • 23D. AguirreD
  • 16L. ReyD
  • 3D. CampilloD
  • 37R. LedezmaM
  • 28R. GonzálezM
  • 33J. CarrilloM
  • 182L. CalderonM
  • 25R. AlvaradoM
  • 10E. ÁlvarezM
  • 17R. MarínF
Substitutes
  • 18J. PérezM
  • 13Óscar WhalleyG
  • 14H. CamberosM
  • 19K. CastañedaM
  • 5B. GonzálezD
  • 24M. GómezD
  • 57J. HernándezF
  • 46C. HernandezD
  • 59C. IndaM
Coach: G. Milito
Necaxa 5-4-1
  • 181Javier OrantesG
  • 2E. MartínezD
  • 5Kaiky NavesD
  • 15D. OchoaD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 14M. ZaletaD
  • 99M. RodríguezM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 90J. ValenciaF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 208Leonardo Abimael Becerra RamosM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
  • 17R. CortézM
  • 21M. EspíndolaM
  • 33R. MartínezD
  • 210Joshua Alejandro Palacios PulidoM
  • 27M. PedrozaF
  • 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
Coach: Juan Reynoso

Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa

Guadalajara Chivas

Liga MX

  • D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026

Necaxa

Liga MX

  • L0-2Atlas17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Guadalajara Chivas168622615+1130
17Necaxa163491728-1113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa

  • 23 April 2026Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 24 September 2025Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 18 January 2025Necaxa 3–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 23 October 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 21 February 2024Necaxa 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 14 July 2023Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 NecaxaLiga MX

The full Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa record →

Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa

Guadalajara Chivas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Guadalajara Chivas beat Necaxa 1–0. The model had made a win for Guadalajara Chivas its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Agustin Oliveros (own goal) 77' for Guadalajara Chivas. On expected goals it finished 0.76–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Guadalajara Chivas a 95.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 98.2% after a win, 92.7% after a draw, 84.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.2%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

For Necaxa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 87.4% going in: 67.7% after a win, 84.6% after a draw, 91.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.6%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 58% / 24% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 66% / 20% / 14%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Guadalajara Chivas win66%▲ +8
  2. Draw20%▼ −4
  3. Necaxa win14%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.