21 October 2026, 03:00 UTC

Tigres UANL vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza
Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Tigres UANL 0-2 Leon.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Tigres UANL, 25% draw, 21% Leon — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tigres UANL at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tigres UANL0%Draw1%Leon99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Ismael Díaz
45+1'
Javier Gandolfi
Víctor Manuel Vucetich Rojas
45+1'
46'
Sebastián Vegas
🔁Jonathan Herreraout: Rodrigo Aguirre
58'
🔁Henrique Simeoneout: Diego Sánchez
58'
64'
🔁Ivan Morenoout: Bryan Colula
64'
🔁Fernando Beltranout: Jose Rodriguez
73'
🔁Sebastián Vegasout: Diber Cambindo
73'
🔁Jose Alvaradoout: Christopher Mora
🔁Emiliano Gómezout: Ricardo Monreal
81'
🔁Fernando Gorriaránout: Cesar Araujo
81'
84'
🔁Edgar Guerraout: Paul Bellón
🔁Jesús Garzaout: jaidyn contreras
86'
89'
⚽Diber Cambindoassist: Rodrigo Echeverría

Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Leon

70%Possession30%
20Shots12
6On target5
16Corners4
1.93xG2.27

Goals against chances

Tigres UANL0 from 1.93 xGless than the chances were worth
Leon2 from 2.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. GuzmánG
  • 14J. GarzaD
  • 15A. FrancoD
  • 33R. GuerreroD
  • 19M. LaínezD
  • 8F. GorriaránM
  • 34SimeoneM
  • 16D. LainezM
  • 9E. GómezM
  • 77O. HerreraM
  • 22G. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 29J. ContrerasF
  • 5C. AraújoM
  • 17R. AguirreF
  • 184I. AcevesD
  • 32V. LoroñaD
  • 21R. MonrealF
  • 25F. RodríguezG
  • 30D. SánchezF
  • 6J. VigónM
Coach: M. Vucetich
Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23Ó. GarcíaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomañaD
  • 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 20R. EcheverríaM
  • 18E. GuerraM
  • 6F. BeltránM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 11I. DíazM
  • 19J. AlvaradoF
Substitutes
  • 25P. BellónD
  • 27D. CambindoF
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 247I. EspinosaM
  • 203J. LaraM
  • 21S. LondoñoF
  • 181Irving MartínezG
  • 185C. MoraD
  • 26S. ReyesM
Coach: J. Gandolfi

Form going into Tigres UANL vs Leon

Tigres UANL

Liga MX

  • D1-1away to Guadalajara Chivas17 October 2026

Leon

Liga MX

  • L3-5Club America18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tigres UANL163671725-815
8Leon166552321+223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Leon

  • 1 February 2026Leon 1–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 14 September 2025Tigres UANL 0–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 23 February 2025Leon 1–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 28 September 2024Tigres UANL 2–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 18 January 2024Leon 1–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 16 July 2023Tigres UANL 1–0 LeonLiga MX

The full Tigres UANL vs Leon record →

Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Leon

Tigres UANL

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brunetta94

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Alvarado61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leon won 2–0 at Tigres UANL. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigres UANL at 54% and given a win for Leon 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Ismael Díaz 19' for Leon, Diber Cambindo 89' for Leon. On expected goals it finished 1.93–2.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tigres UANL a 18.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 25.3% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 3.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.8%, 15.1 points lower than before the match.

For Leon the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 23.6% going in: 46.8% after a win, 24.4% after a draw, 15.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.8%, 23.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tigres UANL v Leon has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Tigres UANL's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Tigres UANL win54%▲ +9
  2. Draw25%▼ −4
  3. Leon win21%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.