21 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Libertad Financiera, San Luis de Potosi
Referee: Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atletico San Luis 2-1 Club Queretaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Atletico San Luis, 28% draw, 31% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico San Luis at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
🔁Paulo Victorout: Iker Benito Sánchez
•Benjamín Galdames
43'
⚽Felipe Moraassist: Rafael Llorente
52'
🔁Oscar Maciasout: Johan Caicedo
59'
⚽Daniel Parra (OG)
67'
71'
🔁Mateo Coronelout: Álex Alcalá
71'
🔁Bayron Duarteout: Denilson Muñoz
74'
⚽Ali Ávila (pen)
🔁Benjamín Galdamesout: Román Torres
76'
🔁Felipe Moraout: Sebastián Pérez Bouquet
76'
🔁Rafael Llorenteout: Leonardo Flores
76'
85'
🔁Enzo Giménezout: Juan Robles
85'
🔁Bernardo Parraout: Waldo Madrid
🔁David Rodriguezout: Roberto Meraz
88'

Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro

55%Possession45%
12Shots9
4On target4
5Corners2
1.45xG1.07

Goals against chances

Atletico San Luis2 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth
Club Queretaro1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis 3-4-2-1
  • 25G. LajudG
  • 3Robson BambuD
  • 31E. ÁguilaD
  • 18A. CruzD
  • 11D. RodríguezM
  • 21Ó. MacíasM
  • 10S. Salles-LamongeM
  • 17A. DuarteM
  • 7B. GaldamesM
  • 22Rafa LlorenteM
  • 99F. MoraF
Substitutes
  • 2R. TorresD
  • 20L. FloresF
  • 16Lucas EstevesD
  • 13J. CaicedoM
  • 30B. GalindoD
  • 5R. MerazM
  • 19S. MuñózF
  • 26S. Pérez BouquetM
  • 6JuanpeD
Coach: Diego Mejía
Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1
  • 25G. AllisonG
  • 24B. DuarteD
  • 15C. VillanuevaD
  • 2L. AbasciaD
  • 27D. ParraD
  • 4Carlo AdrianoM
  • 8B. ParraM
  • 16E. GiménezM
  • 11M. CoronelM
  • 12Paulo VictorM
  • 9A. ÁvilaF
Substitutes
  • 20Álex AlcaláM
  • 28J. ArellanoM
  • 7Iker BenitoF
  • 30J. MartinezM
  • 241Emiliano Guerrero RamírezM
  • 1J. HernándezG
  • 29W. MadridM
  • 17D. MuñozM
  • 26E. PérezF
Coach: E. González

Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro

Atletico San Luis

Liga MX

  • D1-1away to Toluca18 October 2026

Club Queretaro

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Santos Laguna17 October 2026
  • W2-0Atlante FC10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
  • D1-1Leon21 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Queretaro had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Atletico San Luis165471924-519
12Club Queretaro166281824-620

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro

  • 26 June 2026Club Queretaro 2–2 Atletico San LuisFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 February 2026Atletico San Luis 3–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 23 August 2025Club Queretaro 3–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 8 February 2025Club Queretaro 1–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 19 August 2024Atletico San Luis 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 28 February 2024Club Queretaro 4–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX

The full Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro record →

Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Club Queretaro

Atletico San Luis

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Club Queretaro

GoalsAssists

  • A. Ávila60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico San Luis beat Club Queretaro 2–1. The model had made a win for Atletico San Luis its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Felipe Mora 52' for Atletico San Luis, Daniel Parra (own goal) 67' for Atletico San Luis, Ali Ávila (penalty) 74' for Club Queretaro. On expected goals it finished 1.45–1.07.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico San Luis a 13.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.0% after a win, 15.0% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 9.5 points lower than before the match.

For Club Queretaro the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 11.7% going in: 19.7% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 5.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.7%, 6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atletico San Luis v Club Queretaro has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Atletico San Luis's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Atletico San Luis win41%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Club Queretaro win31%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.