3 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

FC Lugano vs Servette FC Super League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Full time1 0

Final score: FC Lugano 1-0 Servette FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Lugano, 28% draw, 30% Servette FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Lugano at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano5%Draw92%Servette FC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Tiemoko Ouattara
Ahmed Kendouci
19'
20'
Samuel Mráz (pen)
Dereck Moncada
28'
38'
Pedrinho
🔁Ahmed Kendouciout: Anto Grgic
45'
58'
Timothé Cognat
60'
🔁Samuel Mrázout: Kingstone Mutandwa
🔁Behruzjon Karimovout: Mattia Zanotti
67'
🔁Dereck Moncadaout: Albian Ajeti
67'
69'
🔁Tiemoko Ouattaraout: Thomas Lopes
70'
🔁Pedrinhoout: David Douline
🔁Daniel Dos Santos Correiaout: Elias Pihlstrom
74'
80'
🔁Lilian Njohout: David Datro Fofana
80'
🔁Quentin Maceirasout: Houboulang Mendes
🔁Yanis Cimignaniout: Beckham Castro
90+2'
Albian Ajetiassist: Beckham Castro
90+4'

Match stats — FC Lugano vs Servette FC

66%Possession34%
20Shots10
3On target2
11Corners3

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-1-4-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 25U. BislimiM
  • 2B. KarimovM
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 11R. SteffenF
  • 30D. MoncadaF
Substitutes
  • 46M. ZanottiD
  • 24E. PihlströmF
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 23G. AjdinM
  • 9A. AjetiF
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
Servette FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. GertmonasG
  • 23Q. MaceirasD
  • 4S. RouillerD
  • 15M. BurchD
  • 18B. MazikouD
  • 8T. CognatM
  • 6Pedro NaressiM
  • 77T. OuattaraM
  • 9M. StevanovićM
  • 14L. NjohM
  • 90S. MrázF
Substitutes
  • 20Jarell Njike SimoM
  • 34T. AllixD
  • 37Sylvain Claude Djoho FilhoD
  • 28D. DoulineM
  • 27David Datro FofanaF
  • 36Thomas LopesM
  • 17Houboulang MendesD
  • 7K. MutandwaF
  • 44Louis RiederG
Coach: J. Gourvennec

Form going into FC Lugano vs Servette FC

FC Lugano

  • W2-1away to FC Sion30 August 2026

Servette FC

  • D1-1FC Luzern29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Lugano8710237+1622
5Servette FC8314910-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs Servette FC

  • 3 September 2026FC Lugano 1–0 Servette FCSuper League
  • 11 February 2026FC Lugano 1–1 Servette FCSuper League
  • 14 December 2025FC Lugano 4–2 Servette FCSuper League
  • 26 October 2025Servette FC 2–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 15 May 2025Servette FC 4–1 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 29 March 2025FC Lugano 0–2 Servette FCSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and Servette FC

FC Lugano

  • D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
  • Y. Cimignani3 goals

Servette FC

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.