7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys Super League prediction & result

Thermoplan Arena, Luzern
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC Luzern 2-3 BSC Young Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% FC Luzern, 22% draw, 45% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 3.03, 4.55 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

BSC Young Boys at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Luzern5%Draw88%BSC Young Boys7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Mio Zimmermannout: Tyron Owusu
7'
22'
⚽Christian Fassnacht
•Daniel Mikołajewski
36'
⚽Matteo Di Giusto (pen)
38'
56'
Isaac Schmidt
64'
⚽Bahereba Guirassyassist: Isaac Schmidt
77'
🔁Isaac Schmidtout: stefan bukinac
77'
🔁Bahereba Guirassyout: Alan Virginius
79'
Joel Mall
🔁Daniel Mikołajewskiout: Lars Villiger
79'
🔁Andrejs Cigaņiksout: Aurelio Oehlers
79'
79'
Moritz Jenz
⚽Levin Winklerassist: Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb
82'
Pius Dorn
85'
Loïc Lüthi
89'
Aurelio Oehlers
90'
🔁Oscar Kabwit Tshikombout: Bung Hua Freimann
90+1'
90+1'
🔁Alvyn Sanchesout: Mamadou Kaly·Sene
90+1'
🔁Armin Gigovicout: Dominik Pech
90+2'
⚽Samuel Essendeassist: Alan Virginius
90+6'
🔁Christian Fassnachtout: Gregory Wüthrich

Match stats — FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

48%Possession52%
19Shots16
7On target8
5Corners4
2.17xG1.87

Goals against chances

FC Luzern2 from 2.17 xGabout what the chances were worth
BSC Young Boys3 from 1.87 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Luzern 4-2-3-1
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 20P. DornD
  • 21L. LüthiD
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 22R. FernandesD
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 29Levin WinklerM
  • 16O. tshikombM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 14A. CigaņiksM
  • 19D. MikołajewskiF
Substitutes
  • 13B. FreimannD
  • 9A. GrbićF
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 10Lucas FerreiraM
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
  • 27L. VilligerF
  • 34D. XhemalijaM
Coach: J. Portmann
BSC Young Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. KellerG
  • 27L. BlumD
  • 4M. JenzD
  • 15C. ZesigerD
  • 22I. SchmidtD
  • 30S. LauperM
  • 8A. GigovićM
  • 16C. FassnachtM
  • 10A. SanchesM
  • 12Bahereba GuirassyM
  • 99S. EssendeF
Substitutes
  • 7A. VirginiusF
  • 9K. SèneF
  • 13D. PechM
  • 18J. MallG
  • 17S. JankoD
  • 34E. EtoskiM
  • 31F. ConteF
  • 33S. BukinacD
  • 5G. WüthrichD
Coach: G. Seoane

Form going into FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

FC Luzern

Super League

  • D1-1FC Sion31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Zurich24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
  • W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026

BSC Young Boys

Super League

  • L3-5FC Zurich1 November 2026
  • W2-0FC St. Gallen24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Grasshoppers11 October 2026
  • W3-2Servette FC19 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Luzern failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Luzern scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • BSC Young Boys won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9FC Luzern133462128-713
2BSC Young Boys138414125+1628

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

  • 5 September 2026BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 4 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 14 December 2025BSC Young Boys 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 14 September 2025FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 15 May 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 13 April 2025FC Luzern 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mikołajewski43
  • M. Di Giusto43

BSC Young Boys

GoalsAssists

  • S. Essende153
  • C. Fassnacht61
  • A. Sanches44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

BSC Young Boys won 3–2 at FC Luzern. The model had made a win for BSC Young Boys its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Christian Fassnacht 22' for BSC Young Boys, Matteo Di Giusto (penalty) 38' for FC Luzern, Bahereba Guirassy 64' for BSC Young Boys, Levin Winkler 82' for FC Luzern, Samuel Essende 90+2' for BSC Young Boys. On expected goals it finished 2.17–1.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Luzern a 28.4% chance to finish in the top six: 39.0% after a win, 25.4% after a draw, 20.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.8%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For BSC Young Boys the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 3.5% going in: 4.8% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, 1.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.8%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Luzern v BSC Young Boys has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 32% / 21% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 33% / 22% / 45%: the biggest move is BSC Young Boys's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Luzern win33%▲ +1
  2. Draw22%▲ +1
  3. BSC Young Boys win45%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.