Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Jerusalem 1-1 Bnei Sakhnin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Hapoel Jerusalem, 32% draw, 31% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hapoel Jerusalem at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 55N. ZamirG
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 21Hilay Sharabi MelmanD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 18L. MizrachiD
- 7O. AlmagorM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 22T. HaimovichM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 33I. DaphahF
- 10V. DamaşcanF
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 26I. CohenD
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 8I. MadmonM
- 20O. NadirD
- 23Nati ShafrauM
- 19N. VrasanaF
- 1R. BălbărăuG
- 13L. OwusuD
- 5I. Abu AbaidD
- 4O. DahanD
- 92Saná GomesD
- 10M. Anim CudjoeM
- 8M. VorobjovasM
- 6A. TahaM
- 28I. HagagM
- 9D. ParaschivF
- 29A. SalmanF
- 77A. SeferF
- 19S. TagiM
- 16L. HalafF
- 2M. GantusD
- 20M. GanameD
- 11J. BushnaqF
- 24B. KhuriF
- 22M. Abu NilG
- 21M. Abu RiyaM
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya31 October 2026
- L0-3Hapoel Tel Aviv24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva18 October 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al
- D1-1Ironi Tiberias31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona24 October 2026
- W2-0Hapoel Petah Tikva17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Jerusalem did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bnei Sakhnin went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bnei Sakhnin had two goals or fewer.
- Bnei Sakhnin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 9 |
| 7 | Bnei Sakhnin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin
- 10 May 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 31 January 2026Bnei Sakhnin 0–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 25 October 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 15 March 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 8 March 2025Bnei Sakhnin 0–2 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 8 December 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 1–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- N. Vrasana50
- A. Idoko42
Bnei Sakhnin
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hapoel Jerusalem and Bnei Sakhnin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hapoel Jerusalem at 37% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Modestas Vorobjovas 18' for Bnei Sakhnin, Vitalie Damașcan 49' for Hapoel Jerusalem. On expected goals it finished 1.91–0.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Jerusalem these chances to finish in the bottom three: 19.5% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 35.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 28.8%.
For Bnei Sakhnin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.1% going in: 7.2% after a win, 13.8% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 13.8%.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hapoel Jerusalem v Bnei Sakhnin has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 32% / 31%: the biggest move is Hapoel Jerusalem's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Hapoel Jerusalem win37%▼ −4
- Draw32%▲ +2
- Bnei Sakhnin win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.