22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

MCH Arena, Herning
Referee: Juxhin Xhaja, Albania
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Midtjylland 0-1 St. Truiden.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% FC Midtjylland, 25% draw, 23% St. Truiden — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Midtjylland at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Midtjylland0%Draw6%St. Truiden94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Pedro Bravo
22'
42'
⚽F. Soelleassist: R. Vanwesemael
🔁P. Bravoout: Cho Gue-Sung
46'
🔁Hong Hyun-Seokout: S. Iheanacho
46'
🔁M. Rajovicout: F. Etim
46'
59'
Ilias Sebaoui
🔁D. Martinezout: V. Bak
69'
72'
🔁R. Merlenout: K. Matsuzawa
72'
🔁F. Soelleout: S. Bazdar
🔁J. Emefileout: A. Ndiaye
79'
85'
🔁J. Pupeout: T. Hata
85'
🔁N. Mbukuout: A. Muja
90+4'
🔁R. Vanwesemaelout: W. Janssens

Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

42%Possession58%
19Shots18
4On target7
6Corners7
2.9xG1.98

Goals against chances

FC Midtjylland0 from 2.90 xGless than the chances were worth
St. Truiden1 from 1.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland 3-1-4-2
  • 25N. BakkerG
  • 5R. KristensenD
  • 4O. DiaoD
  • 22M. B. SorensenD
  • 19P. BravoM
  • 98D. MartinezM
  • 20Hong Hyun-SeokM
  • 29K. WatjenM
  • 27S. JohannesenM
  • 38J. EmefileF
  • 9M. RajovicF
Substitutes
  • 30O. EjeheriG
  • 60M. UgbohG
  • 55V. BakD
  • 15D. BeniD
  • 34A. NdiayeD
  • 10Cho Gue-SungF
  • 18S. IheanachoF
  • 17M. UhreF
  • 90F. EtimF
Coach: Mike Tullberg
St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 4K. TakaiD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 11N. MbukuM
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 19F. SoelleF
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 35Y. NgoyG
  • 27J. MbambiD
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 7A. MujaF

Form going into FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

FC Midtjylland

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë15 October 2026

St. Truiden

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-0FC Iberia 199915 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
34FC Midtjylland301228-61
10St. Truiden321041+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden

FC Midtjylland

GoalsAssists

  • Cho Gue-Sung30

St. Truiden

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Truiden won 1–0 at FC Midtjylland. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Midtjylland at 52% and given a win for St. Truiden 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: F. Soelle 42' for St. Truiden. On expected goals it finished 2.90–1.98.

How the call on FC Midtjylland v St. Truiden has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FC Midtjylland win52%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. St. Truiden win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.