22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Right to Dream Park, Farum
Referee: Robert Jones, England
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Nordsjaelland 2-2 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Nordsjaelland, 27% draw, 25% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Nordsjaelland at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Nordsjaelland4%Draw92%CSKA Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽L. Godoyassist: S. Sensi
20'
D. Almeida
🔁V. Nelssonout: T. Salquist
30'
J. Olsen
36'
S. Acquah
36'
⚽I. Adelassist: N. Markmann
55'
J. Janssen
59'
🔁N. Rojkjaerout: M. Heyde
61'
🔁V. Berthelsenout: H. Rasmussen
62'
65'
🔁P. Panayotovout: C. Itu
⚽I. Adelassist: A. Lind
67'
J. Janssen
76'
J. Janssen
76'
77'
🔁D. Almeidaout: I. Solet
77'
🔁M. Ebongout: T. Ivanov
🔁I. Adelout: M. Brink
81'
🔁J. Lahteenmakiout: M. Walker
81'
84'
T. Ivanov
84'
🔁Pastorout: J. Eto'o
88'
⚽L. Godoy
A. Hansen
90'
90'
I. Solet
90'
B. Jordao
N. Markmann
90+1'

Match stats — FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia

53%Possession47%
13Shots18
6On target7
5Corners2
1.26xG1.91

Goals against chances

FC Nordsjaelland2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth
CSKA Sofia2 from 1.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3
  • 13Andreas HansenG
  • 15Stephen AcquahD
  • 25Victor NelssonD
  • 4Noah MarkmannD
  • 23Runar Robinsonn NorheimM
  • 18Justin JanssenM
  • 8Nicklas RøjkjærM
  • 5Juho LähteenmäkiM
  • 29Villum BerthelsenF
  • 11Alexander LindF
  • 14Ibrahim AdelF
Substitutes
  • 3Tobias SalquistD
  • 21Malte HeydeM
  • 40Hjalte Boe RasmussenM
  • 28Markus WalkerD
  • 6Mark BrinkM
  • 16Jakob BuskG
  • 22Carljohan ErikssonG
  • 2Peter AnkersenD
  • 35Villads RutkjærD
CSKA Sofia 4-3-3
  • 21Fedor LapoukhovG
  • 2PastorD
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 32Facundo RodríguezD
  • 17Ángelo MartinoD
  • 7Max EbongM
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 8Stefano SensiM
  • 28Ioannis PittasF
  • 9Leandro GodoyF
  • 30Petko PanayotovF
Substitutes
  • 67Cătălin ItuM
  • 14Teodor IvanovD
  • 94Isaac SoletM
  • 99James Eto'oM
  • 25Dimitar EvtimovG
  • 31Daniel NikolovG
  • 19Andrey YordanovD
  • 91Aleks TunchevD
  • 34Vasil KaymakanovF

Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia

FC Nordsjaelland

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian15 October 2026

CSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L1-2Monaco15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
25FC Nordsjaelland302135-22
28CSKA Sofia301246-21

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia

FC Nordsjaelland

GoalsAssists

  • N. Røjkjær42

CSKA Sofia

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Nordsjaelland at 48% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: L. Godoy 8' for CSKA Sofia, I. Adel 55' for FC Nordsjaelland, I. Adel 67' for FC Nordsjaelland, L. Godoy 88' for CSKA Sofia. Sent off: J. Janssen (FC Nordsjaelland) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.26–1.91.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.