22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Kaunas
Referee: Pavle Ilic, Serbia
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Kauno Žalgiris 1-4 Brann.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Kauno Žalgiris, 26% draw, 41% Brann — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brann at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kauno Žalgiris0%Draw1%Brann99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽N. Castro (pen)
⚽Renan Oliveira
12'
25'
⚽N. Holmassist: J. Soltvedt
I. Fiolic
36'
Leo Ribeiro
37'
40'
⚽N. Holmassist: E. Gudmundsson
F. Ourega
42'
🔁Leo Ribeiroout: L. Krekovic
46'
🔁R. Lekiatasout: A. Hernandez
46'
🔁I. Fiolicout: V. Slivka
46'
N. Iyobosa Edokpolor
53'
🔁F. Ouregaout: M. Burba
63'
68'
E. Gudmundsson
68'
🔁S. Magnussonout: K. Eriksen
75'
🔁J. Soltvedtout: V. Dragsnes
75'
🔁J. Torsvikout: T. Pedersen
🔁Renan Oliveiraout: G. Debeljuh
82'
85'
⚽N. Holmassist: K. Eriksen
88'
🔁N. Castroout: J. Laegreid
88'
🔁E. Gudmundssonout: B. Finne
A. Hernandez
90'

Match stats — Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann

33%Possession67%
12Shots21
2On target8
1Corners4
1.56xG3.37

Goals against chances

Kauno Žalgiris1 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth
Brann4 from 3.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kauno Žalgiris 4-1-4-1
  • 55Tomas ŠvedkauskasG
  • 45Joris MoutachyD
  • 3Anton TolordavaD
  • 77Rokas LekiatasD
  • 37Nosa Iyobosa EdokpolorD
  • 20Anthony KalikM
  • 70Fabien OuregaM
  • 17Ivan FiolićM
  • 10Gratas SirgėdasM
  • 15Léo RibeiroM
  • 19Renan OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 23Aldayr HernándezD
  • 9Leon KrekovićF
  • 14Vykintas SlivkaM
  • 24Motiejus BurbaF
  • 27Gabriel DebeljuhF
  • 22Deividas MikelionisG
  • 62Lirim KastratiD
  • 74Adomas UžkurnysM
  • 8Yukiyoshi KarashimaM
Brann 4-3-3
  • 12Simen Vidtun NilsenG
  • 15Jonas TorsvikD
  • 3Fredrik Pallesen KnudsenD
  • 18Jacob Lungi SørensenD
  • 17Joachim SoltvedtD
  • 10Kristall Máni IngasonM
  • 25Niklas Jensen WassbergM
  • 19Eggert Aron GuðmundssonM
  • 22Sævar Atli MagnússonF
  • 29Noah Jean HolmF
  • 9Niklas CastroF
Substitutes
  • 16Kristian EriksenM
  • 20Vetle DragsnesD
  • 23Thore PedersenD
  • 11Bård FinneF
  • 39Julian LægreidF
  • 1Mathias DyngelandG
  • 36Håkon Melås HellesøyG
  • 41Andreas WilhelmsenD
  • 2Leo CornicD

Form going into Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann

Kauno Žalgiris

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-4away to Brighton15 October 2026

Brann

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-1Lincoln Red Imps FC15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
36Kauno Žalgiris3003111-100
6Brann321073+47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Kauno Žalgiris and Brann

Kauno Žalgiris

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Brann

GoalsAssists

  • N. Holm30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Brann won 4–1 at Kauno Žalgiris. The model had made a win for Brann its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Castro (penalty) 7' for Brann, Renan Oliveira 12' for Kauno Žalgiris, N. Holm 25' for Brann, N. Holm 40' for Brann, N. Holm 85' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 1.56–3.37.

How the call on Kauno Žalgiris v Brann has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is Kauno Žalgiris's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Kauno Žalgiris win33%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Brann win41%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.