Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln Red Imps FC 1-4 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 15% Lincoln Red Imps FC, 23% draw, 62% Twente — fair odds of 6.67, 4.35 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. HankinsG
- 66J. EerstelingD
- 6B. LopesD
- 3C. RutjensD
- 21NanoD
- 19Y. Flalhi IdrissiM
- 22G. TorrillaM
- 8MandiM
- 10A. Mula
- 11A. Romero MorilloF
- 9K. GomezF
- 1Nauzet SantanaG
- 27M. HammG
- 2E. JolleyD
- 20E. BrittoD
- 23JoeM
- 32F. AlvarezM
- 4N. Pinto
- 7L. CasciaroF
- 18T. GarciaF
- 16J. DrommelG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PropperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 11D. RotsM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 7M. PjacaM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 31Y. GerritsenG
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 39J. MeilinkD
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 2M. RosiakD
- 26B. NagelM
- 18J. BawuahM
Form going into Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente
Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-2away to Brann15 October 2026
Twente
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W1-0FC Thun15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lincoln Red Imps FC and Twente
Lincoln Red Imps FC
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- M. Pjaca41
- D. Weidmann35
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Twente won 4–1 at Lincoln Red Imps FC. The model had made a win for Twente its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: T. van den Belt 19' for Twente, W. Weghorst 24' for Twente, Nano 38' for Lincoln Red Imps FC, T. van den Belt 57' for Twente, D. Weidmann 90' for Twente. On expected goals it finished 0.15–4.89.
How the call on Lincoln Red Imps FC v Twente has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 13% / 22% / 65% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 15% / 23% / 62%: the biggest move is Twente's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Lincoln Red Imps FC win15%▲ +2
- Draw23%▲ +1
- Twente win62%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.