22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Pafos vs Riga UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Referee: Marian Barbu, Romania
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Pafos 1-1 Riga.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Pafos, 15% draw, 7% Riga — fair odds of 1.28, 6.67 and 14.29.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pafos at 78%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pafos8%Draw90%Riga2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁A. Britoout: I. Sunjic
46'
I. Sunjic
49'
🔁J. Correiaout: D. Quina
61'
🔁Anderson Silvaout: Lele
65'
66'
🔁M. Diopout: Caio Ferreira
66'
🔁Reginaldo Ramiresout: M. Badamosi
67'
⚽Caio Ferreiraassist: S. Oulad M'Hand
🔁Gugaout: K. Sema
71'
⚽Bielassist: K. Sema
76'
78'
🔁R. Aouaniout: A. Cernomordijs
K. Sema
87'
88'
🔁S. Oulad M'Handout: C. Saco
90'
M. Tonisevs

Match stats — Pafos vs Riga

51%Possession49%
17Shots16
4On target3
10Corners4
1.46xG1.64

Goals against chances

Pafos1 from 1.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Riga1 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pafos 4-3-3
  • 99Radosław MajeckiG
  • 7BrunoD
  • 3Samy MmaeeD
  • 4David LuizD
  • 14Nikolas IoannouD
  • 30Vlad DragomirM
  • 50Alexandre BritoM
  • 6GugaM
  • 77João CorreiaF
  • 33Anderson SilvaF
  • 20BielF
Substitutes
  • 26Ivan ŠunjićM
  • 8Domingos QuinaM
  • 18LelêF
  • 12Ken SemaM
  • 71Michalis PapastylianouG
  • 82Petros PetrouG
  • 72Kosmas IoannouD
  • 60Christos EvzonasM
Riga 4-3-1-2
  • 12Kenan PirićG
  • 23Maksims TonisevsD
  • 21Baba MusahD
  • 5Karl Gameni WassomD
  • 13Raivis JurkovskisD
  • 22Meïssa DiopM
  • 40Ahmed AnkrahM
  • 7Raki AouaniM
  • 8Iago Siqueira AugustoM
  • 10Reginaldo RamiresF
  • 18Salah Oulad M'HandF
Substitutes
  • 11Caio FerreiraM
  • 19Muhammed BadamosiF
  • 34Antonijs ČernomordijsD
  • 6Coli SacoM
  • 44Marcis KazainisG
  • 91Frenks OrolsG
  • 15Samuel PedroF
  • 25Abdulrahman TaiwoF

Form going into Pafos vs Riga

Pafos

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L1-3away to Atalanta15 October 2026

Riga

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1Kairat Almaty15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
30Pafos301237-41
19Riga30303303

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Pafos and Riga drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Pafos at 78% and given a draw 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Caio Ferreira 67' for Riga, Biel 76' for Pafos. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.