Monaco vs SC Freiburg UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Monaco, 27% draw, 29% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Monaco at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs SC Freiburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HradeckyG
- 2VandersonD
- 72S. SaneD
- 4J. TezeD
- 13C. MawissaD
- 8L. CamaraM
- 37E. DiopM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 7M. DetourbetM
- 29P. BrunnerF
- 16P. KohnG
- 40J. StawieckiG
- 22M. SalisuD
- 20NazinhoD
- 19P. CabralM
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 49I. ToureM
- 11M. AblineF
- 1M. BackhausG
- 17L. KublerD
- 28M. GinterD
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 33J. MakengoD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 32V. GrifoM
- 31I. MatanovicF
- 24J. HuthG
- 30C. GunterD
- 5A. JungD
- 29P. TreuD
- 6P. OsterhageM
- 20R. YamamotoM
- 9L. HolerF
- 42K. GotoF
- 7D. ScherhantF
Form going into Monaco vs SC Freiburg
Monaco
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W2-1away to CSKA Sofia15 October 2026
SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W3-2FK Jablonec15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Monaco and SC Freiburg
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner41
SC Freiburg
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monaco beat SC Freiburg 3–0. The model had made a win for Monaco its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: P. Brunner 45' for Monaco, L. Camara 83' for Monaco, A. Fati 90' for Monaco. On expected goals it finished 1.25–0.83.
How the call on Monaco v SC Freiburg has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Monaco's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Monaco win44%▼ −3
- Draw27%▲ +1
- SC Freiburg win29%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.