Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Kairat Almaty 1-5 Panathinaikos.
Before kick-off the model made it 8% Kairat Almaty, 15% draw, 77% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 12.50, 6.67 and 1.30.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Panathinaikos at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Temirlan AnarbekovG
- 20Erkin TapalovD
- 14Aleksandr MartynovichD
- 8Olzhas BaibekD
- 3Luís MataD
- 22Gustavo MendoncaM
- 13Jaakko OksanenM
- 24Aleksandr MrynskiyM
- 28Marc GualM
- 17Azamat TuyakbayevM
- 9EdmilsonF
- 25Aleksandr ShirobokovD
- 19Oiva JukkolaM
- 5Lev KurginD
- 4Damir KasabulatD
- 81Ismail BekbolatF
- 82Sherkhan KalmurzaG
- 6Adilet SadybekovM
- 15Mansur BirkurmanovF
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 19Triantafyllos TsaprasD
- 14Erik Palmer BrownD
- 6Stefan de VrijD
- 77Georgios KyriakopoulosD
- 22Etienne CamaraM
- 26Imrân LouzaM
- 20Vicente TabordaM
- 7Andreas TettehM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 9Cyriel DessersF
- 42Kings KangwaM
- 74Elmin RastoderF
- 4Pedro ChirivellaM
- 28Facundo PellistriM
- 3Georgios KatrisD
- 71Christos GitonasG
- 70Konstantinos KotsarisG
- 2Davide CalabriaD
- 55Rick Van DrongelenD
Form going into Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
Kairat Almaty
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D1-1away to Riga15 October 2026
Panathinaikos
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W2-1Borac Banja Luka15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos
Kairat Almaty
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- C. Dessers60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Panathinaikos won 5–1 at Kairat Almaty. The model had made a win for Panathinaikos its most likely outcome, at 77%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: V. Taborda 6' for Panathinaikos, C. Dessers (penalty) 24' for Panathinaikos, C. Dessers 47' for Panathinaikos, K. Kangwa 57' for Panathinaikos, E. Rastoder 75' for Panathinaikos, I. Bekbolat 79' for Kairat Almaty. On expected goals it finished 0.83–2.52.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Kairat Almaty's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Panathinaikos's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.