22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Referee: Jarred Gillett, Australia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Thun 0-1 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% FC Thun, 26% draw, 40% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Thun0%Draw4%HNK Hajduk Split96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽D. de Almeida
47'
Alberto del Moral
Justin Roth
57'
65'
Dario Marešić
68'
⚽Michele Šego (pen)
🔁N. Maierout: N. Zoukit
70'
🔁F. Dursunout: N. Christoffersson
70'
71'
🔁M. Soticekout: D. Melnjak
Nils Reichmuth
73'
🔁J. Rothout: D. Derbaci
78'
🔁B. Labeauout: R. Braschi
78'
78'
🔁A. del Moralout: L. Dendoncker
78'
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
🔁N. Reichmuthout: S. Lengen
83'
85'
🔁K. Fayadout: A. Van Hoorenbeeck
85'
🔁A. Sanyangout: C. Martin

Match stats — FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

54%Possession46%
12Shots11
4On target4
2Corners3
1.35xG1.3

Goals against chances

FC Thun0 from 1.35 xGless than the chances were worth
HNK Hajduk Split1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 23M. BurkiD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 14M. KaitM
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 96B. LabeauF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 22D. WaltiG
  • 5N. BurgyD
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 37L. DahlerD
  • 18T. StrannegardM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 80S. LengenF
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 6D. HadzikadunicD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 23M. SoticekM
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 3R. GabricD
  • 77C. MartinF
  • 26A. HuramM
  • 18L. DendonckerM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

FC Thun

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-1away to Twente15 October 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-1Ajax15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20FC Thun31023303
13HNK Hajduk Split320132+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split won 1–0 at FC Thun. The model had made a win for HNK Hajduk Split its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: D. de Almeida 17' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.30.

How the call on FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is HNK Hajduk Split's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC Thun win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. HNK Hajduk Split win40%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.