22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Papara Park, Trabzon
Referee: Lawrence Visser, Belgium
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Trabzonspor 2-0 Heart of Midlothian.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Trabzonspor, 17% draw, 12% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Trabzonspor at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Trabzonspor99%Draw1%Heart of Midlothian0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Lopes Cabral
9'
11'
C. Miller
20'
C. Borchgrevink
20'
W. Vrancken
⚽M. Salah (pen)
32'
S. Akaydin
38'
44'
🔁C. Borchgrevinkout: S. Kingsley
⚽Franculinoassist: M. Salah
58'
🔁B. Bouchouariout: W. Pina
70'
🔁M. Salahout: O. Tufan
71'
🔁T. Jabol-Folcarelliout: A. Simsir
71'
75'
🔁J. Wilsonout: J. Williams
75'
🔁C. Millerout: S. Kerjota
75'
🔁S. Guendouzout: J. McPake
🔁B. Mendyout: Fabinho
87'
🔁N. Savioloout: K. Akcay
87'
90+1'
J. McPake
90+2'
🔁C. Bragaout: P. Kabore
S. Lopes Cabral
90+5'
S. Lopes Cabral
90+5'

Match stats — Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian

61%Possession39%
11Shots10
5On target1
6Corners1
1.49xG0.64

Goals against chances

Trabzonspor2 from 1.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Heart of Midlothian0 from 0.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor 4-3-3
  • 24André OnanaG
  • 57Melih KabasakalD
  • 4Samet AkaydınD
  • 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
  • 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
  • 26Tim Jabol-FolcarelliM
  • 3Batista MendyM
  • 8Benjamin BouchouariM
  • 10Mohamed SalahF
  • 9Franculino DjúF
  • 70Noah SavioloF
Substitutes
  • 20Wagner PinaD
  • 11Ozan TufanM
  • 58Aral ŞimşirM
  • 81Mustafa Kuzey AkcayD
  • 6FabinhoM
  • 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
  • 96Erol Can ÇolakG
  • 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
  • 7Ernest MuçiM
Heart of Midlothian 4-4-2
  • 1Beau ReusG
  • 2Christian BorchgrevinkD
  • 64Malachi Fagan-WalcottD
  • 5Jamie McCartD
  • 74Rogers MatoD
  • 7Calvin MillerM
  • 22Tomas MagnussonM
  • 23Jordi AltenaM
  • 19Severin Sabri GuendouzM
  • 10Cláudio BragaF
  • 21James WilsonF
Substitutes
  • 3Stephen KingsleyD
  • 15Josh McPakeF
  • 9Jerome WilliamsF
  • 29Sabah KerjotaF
  • 11Pierre Landry KaboréF
  • 28Zander ClarkG
  • 30Ryan FultonG
  • 38Gus StevensonM
  • 78Laurent MendyM

Form going into Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian

Trabzonspor

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W4-2away to KuPS15 October 2026

Heart of Midlothian

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1FC Nordsjaelland15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Trabzonspor320163+36
32Heart of Midlothian301226-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Heart of Midlothian

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Franculino Djú52

Heart of Midlothian

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Trabzonspor beat Heart of Midlothian 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Trabzonspor at 71%. The goals: M. Salah (penalty) 32' for Trabzonspor, Franculino 58' for Trabzonspor. Sent off: S. Lopes Cabral (Trabzonspor) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.64.

How the call on Trabzonspor v Heart of Midlothian has moved

First published on 8 Oct at 63% / 21% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 71% / 17% / 12%: the biggest move is Trabzonspor's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Trabzonspor win71%▲ +8
  2. Draw17%▼ −4
  3. Heart of Midlothian win12%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.