1 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Referee: Julian Weinberger
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 Austria Lustenau.

Before kick-off the model made it 80% Red Bull Salzburg, 13% draw, 7% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 1.25, 7.69 and 14.29.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Red Bull Salzburg at 80%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Abubakr Barry
5'
Yorbe Vertessen
10'
⚽Yorbe Vertessenassist: Frans Kratzig
12'
⚽Frans Kratzigassist: Abubakr Barry
27'
⚽Tim Drexlerassist: Yorbe Vertessen
35'
🔁Bartosz Mazurekout: Soumaila Diabate
45'
🔁Kevin Bomaout: Leandro Morgalla
45'
45'
🔁Haris Ismailcebiogluout: Alieu Conateh
45'
🔁Pius Grabherout: Dion Kacuri
51'
Dion Kacuri
🔁Gaoussou Diakitéout: Karim Konate
55'
🔁Yorbe Vertessenout: Aboubacar Sidiki Camara
55'
61'
🔁Seydou Diarraout: Robin Voisine
61'
🔁Lenn Jastremskiout: Antonio Verinac
⚽Robin Voisine (OG)
68'
🔁Frans Kratzigout: Lassina Traore
74'
79'
🔁Fabian Gmeinerout: Anilson Dourado Santiado
⚽Abubakr Barryassist: Edmund Baidoo
82'
90+1'
⚽Albin Gashiassist: Alieu Conateh
90+3'
•Dominik Weixelbraun

Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau

66%Possession34%
31Shots10
10On target4
15Corners5
3.63xG1.35

Goals against chances

Red Bull Salzburg5 from 3.63 xGmore than the chances were worth
Austria Lustenau1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 47Valentin ZabranskyD
  • 13F. KrätzigD
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 15B. MazurekM
  • 20E. BaidooM
  • 30G. DiakitéM
  • 11Y. VertessenM
  • 9H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
  • 33A. CamaraM
  • 91A. ChaseD
  • 5S. DiabatéM
  • 1C. FrüchtlG
  • 19K. KonatéF
  • 22S. LainerD
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 7U. TohumcuM
  • 48L. TraoréD
Coach: D. Röhl
Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1
  • 27D. SchierlG
  • 7F. GmeinerD
  • 31M. MaakD
  • 29N. PertlwieserD
  • 3Danilo SoaresD
  • 23P. GrabherM
  • 11D. WeixelbraunM
  • 24S. DiarraM
  • 17A. GashiM
  • 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
  • 9L. JastremskiF
Substitutes
  • 20L. AfrifaM
  • 21AnilsonD
  • 14P. BenjaminF
  • 30P. BöhmG
  • 10Alieu ConatehF
  • 26L. IbertsbergerD
  • 8D. KacuriM
  • 39A. VerinacF
  • 18R. VoisineD
Coach: M. Mader

Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau

Red Bull Salzburg

Bundesliga

  • W3-1away to Lask Linz25 October 2026
  • W3-0SCR Altach18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026

Austria Lustenau

Bundesliga

  • L1-5away to Rapid Vienna24 October 2026
  • L0-4Lask Linz17 October 2026
  • L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Red Bull Salzburg12930339+2430
8Austria Lustenau123271530-1511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau

  • 24 February 2024Red Bull Salzburg 7–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 30 September 2023Austria Lustenau 0–4 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
  • 11 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 4–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 27 August 2022Austria Lustenau 0–6 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
  • 29 May 2020Red Bull Salzburg 5–0 Austria LustenauCup
  • 31 October 2018Austria Lustenau 0–1 Red Bull SalzburgCup

Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau

Red Bull Salzburg

GoalsAssists

  • H. Tabaković80
  • K. Konaté40
  • Y. Vertessen33

Austria Lustenau

GoalsAssists

  • D. Weixelbraun61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Lustenau 5–1. The model had made a win for Red Bull Salzburg its most likely outcome, at 80%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Yorbe Vertessen 12' for Red Bull Salzburg, Frans Kratzig 27' for Red Bull Salzburg, Tim Drexler 35' for Red Bull Salzburg, Robin Voisine (own goal) 68' for Red Bull Salzburg, Abubakr Barry 82' for Red Bull Salzburg, Albin Gashi 90+1' for Austria Lustenau. On expected goals it finished 3.63–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Red Bull Salzburg a 41.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 43.3% after a win, 28.7% after a draw, 23.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.3%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Austria Lustenau the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 71.0% going in: 50.3% after a win, 67.8% after a draw, 72.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.6%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Lustenau has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 75% / 16% / 9% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 80% / 13% / 7%: the biggest move is Red Bull Salzburg's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Red Bull Salzburg win80%▲ +5
  2. Draw13%▼ −3
  3. Austria Lustenau win7%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.