FC OSS vs Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: FC OSS 3-3 Jong Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% FC OSS, 26% draw, 24% Jong Ajax — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC OSS at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HavekotteG
- 2I. PataD
- 3L. MiguelD
- 23D. VianelloD
- 26Julian KuijpersD
- 10R. van der VenneM
- 8M. EsajasM
- 11J. MathieuM
- 27M. de LannoyF
- 19F. NsingiF
- 17M. HinokeF
- 21Thomas CoxD
- 5Jafar Howard BynoeM
- 12A. HenryD
- 99S. DoucouréF
- 6M. HoremansM
- 30S. JansenG
- 4Q. JansenD
- 24Jay KuiperD
- 14M. MarianiD
- 1J. HeerkensG
- 2R. van de PavertD
- 3G. SpinaD
- 4M. van der LansD
- 5J. AmourD
- 10Alejandro MonserrateM
- 6T. PetersM
- 8L. AcheampongM
- 7Leo SalazarF
- 9E. ÜnüvarF
- 11P. NashF
- 12C. SetfordG
- 22J. SimeonF
- 21Jinairo JohnsonD
- 20M. VerkuijlM
- 24A. MoumaneF
- 23P. Da SilvaF
- 30A. HaniG
- 18Sinclair de FalcoD
- 17L. BeekmanD
Form going into FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
- L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC OSS | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 | Jong Ajax | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
- 13 April 2026Jong Ajax 1–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 21 October 2025FC OSS 1–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 9 May 2025Jong Ajax 0–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 13 December 2024FC OSS 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 16 February 2024FC OSS 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2023Jong Ajax 1–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and Jong Ajax
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke60
Jong Ajax
GoalsAssists
- E. Ünüvar80
- D. Pugno62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC OSS and Jong Ajax drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for FC OSS at 50% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leo Salazar 27' for Jong Ajax, emre unuvar 42' for Jong Ajax, Andy Visser 54' for FC OSS, Maxim Mariani 71' for FC OSS, Andy Visser 75' for FC OSS, Abdoulaye Camara 90+2' for Jong Ajax. On expected goals it finished 1.42–2.29.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC OSS a 15.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.7% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 21.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.6%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Jong Ajax the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 35.1% going in: 25.5% after a win, 36.1% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.1%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC OSS v Jong Ajax has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is FC OSS's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC OSS win50%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Jong Ajax win24%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.