FC OSS vs Waalwijk Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: FC OSS 1-1 Waalwijk.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC OSS, 29% draw, 34% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC OSS at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC OSS vs Waalwijk
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HavekotteG
- 2I. PataD
- 14M. MarianiD
- 23D. VianelloD
- 12A. HenryD
- 8M. EsajasM
- 5Jafar Howard BynoeM
- 11J. MathieuM
- 18K. LubranoF
- 9Andy VisserF
- 27M. de LannoyF
- 26Julian KuijpersD
- 4Q. JansenD
- 30S. JansenG
- 24Jay KuiperD
- 28L. MolM
- 19F. NsingiF
- 17M. HinokeF
- 33L. ZonneveldD
- 3L. MiguelD
- 1N. SchiksG
- 33F. Al MazyaniD
- 4L. van GelderenD
- 30J. de WijsD
- 5Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloD
- 6L. PostmaM
- 11Yorem van der VeenM
- 22T. van de LooM
- 93V. MisidjanM
- 18R. van HedelF
- 9J. van de HaarF
- 25N. BakboordD
- 55N. HeldD
- 3S. van der PlasD
- 10T. van LeeuwenM
- 27F. StokkersF
- 16M. SpenkelinkG
- 8J. NapM
- 13Xander MulderG
- 17R. KuijpersF
Form going into FC OSS vs Waalwijk
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2away to Heracles2 November 2026
- D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2Almere City FC30 October 2026
- D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
- D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC OSS | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Waalwijk
- 30 January 2026Waalwijk 2–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 21 November 2025FC OSS 0–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 2 July 2022Waalwijk 5–3 FC OSSFriendlies Clubs
- 13 January 2019FC OSS 1–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 12 October 2018Waalwijk 0–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 6 April 2018FC OSS 3–1 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and Waalwijk
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke60
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC OSS and Waalwijk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC OSS at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Maurilio de Lannoy 23' for FC OSS, Jesse van de Haar 58' for Waalwijk. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC OSS a 17.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.5% after a win, 17.8% after a draw, 20.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 17.8%.
For Waalwijk the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 46.8% going in: 53.6% after a win, 46.4% after a draw, 40.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 46.4%.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.