6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Heracles vs Roda Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Asito Stadium, Almelo
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Heracles 5-1 Roda.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Heracles, 26% draw, 16% Roda — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Heracles at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heracles99%Draw1%Roda0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tristan Van Gilst
7'
9'
⚽Anthony van den Hurk (pen)
⚽Jean-Paul N'djoli
25'
41'
Jerome Deom
45+1'
Mitchel Paulissen
⚽Jean-Paul N'djoli
45+1'
⚽Tristan Van Gilstassist: Manny Rodriguez Baldera
51'
🔁Manny Rodriguez Balderaout: Mario Borac
57'
57'
🔁Guilherme Martinho Peixotoout: X. van den Berg
57'
🔁Koen Jansenout: Bram Marsman
57'
🔁Jerome Deomout: Jeremiah Mensah
⚽Tristan Van Gilstassist: Mario Borac
68'
🔁Tristan Van Gilstout: Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
71'
🔁Chafik Abbasout: Thomas Bruns
71'
72'
🔁Joey Sleegersout: Fynn Schenten
81'
🔁Mitchel Paulissenout: Luuk Verheij
🔁Sem Schepermanout: Daniel Van Kaam
81'
🔁Djevencio van der Kustout: David Tomic
81'

Match stats — Heracles vs Roda

58%Possession42%
19Shots9
11On target2
6Corners2
2.49xG1.41

Goals against chances

Heracles5 from 2.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Roda1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heracles 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. de KeijzerG
  • 15David VicenteD
  • 4D. MiraniD
  • 14M. WruschD
  • 25MannyD
  • 5D. van der KustM
  • 32S. SchepermanM
  • 7C. AbbasM
  • 17T. van GilstM
  • 18M. HauswirthM
  • 27J. N'djoliF
Substitutes
  • 80F. FofanaF
  • 16T. JansinkG
  • 9V. PopplerF
  • 10T. BrunsM
  • 2M. BenitaD
  • 26D. van KaamM
  • 23M. te WierikD
  • 33L. ZeevalkinkG
  • 6D. TomićM
Coach: V. Heilmann
Roda 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TreichelG
  • 3M. TolD
  • 33D. Van den BuijsD
  • 15L. BeertenD
  • 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoM
  • 24J. DéomM
  • 4J. NisbetM
  • 5K. JansenM
  • 6M. PaulissenM
  • 26J. SleegersM
  • 9A. van den HurkF
Substitutes
  • 14X. van den BergD
  • 27K. Van MieghemM
  • 28J. van DammeG
  • 2Luuk VerheijM
  • 21M. StojcevicG
  • 10F. SchentenF
  • 25Bram MarsmanD
  • 8J. MensahM
  • 19N. CrabuM
Coach: R. Penders

Form going into Heracles vs Roda

Heracles

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-0FC OSS2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
  • W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026

Roda

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1Jong AZ30 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Heracles1512214616+3038
5Roda158432118+328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heracles vs Roda

  • 14 April 2023Heracles 1–0 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 11 December 2022Roda 1–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie
  • 18 October 2022Roda 2–2 HeraclesKNVB Beker
  • 2 March 2018Roda 0–3 HeraclesEredivisie
  • 23 September 2017Heracles 2–1 RodaEredivisie
  • 11 February 2017Heracles 2–2 RodaEredivisie

Leading scorers: Heracles and Roda

Heracles

GoalsAssists

  • J. N'djoli143
  • T. van Gilst112

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heracles beat Roda 5–1. The model had made a win for Heracles its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tristan Van Gilst 7' for Heracles, Anthony van den Hurk (penalty) 9' for Roda, Jean-Paul N'djoli 25' for Heracles, Jean-Paul N'djoli 45+1' for Heracles, Tristan Van Gilst 51' for Heracles, Tristan Van Gilst 68' for Heracles. On expected goals it finished 2.49–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Heracles a 84.3% chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season: 86.8% after a win, 83.0% after a draw, 79.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.8%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For Roda the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 81.1% going in: 87.3% after a win, 82.3% after a draw, 79.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.4%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Heracles v Roda has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 58% / 26% / 16%: the biggest move is Heracles's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Heracles win58%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. Roda win16%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.