6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC Eerste Divisie prediction & result

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
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Final score: Jong AZ 1-3 Almere City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Jong AZ, 25% draw, 39% Almere City FC — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
🔁Emanuel Pokuout: Byron Burgering
35'
Joey Jacobs
43'
⚽Ferdy Druijfassist: Byron Burgering
🔁Hessel de Witout: Bogdan Budko
60'
⚽Jasper Hartog
67'
68'
🔁H. el Dahriout: Marley Dors
68'
🔁Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kampout: Jamie Jacobs
73'
⚽Rome Jayden Owusu Oduro (OG)
79'
🔁Byron Burgeringout: Tiziano vianello
79'
🔁Mees Hoedemakersout: Milan de Haan
🔁Julian Sijbrandsout: Melle Roede
79'
🔁Wassim bouzianeout: Kevin toppenberg
79'
🔁J. Esajasout: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
80'
85'
⚽Marley Dorsassist: Milan de Haan
🔁Frej Elkjær Andersenout: Rayan Atikallah
85'

Match stats — Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

66%Possession34%
18Shots14
8On target7
10Corners4
1xG2.18

Goals against chances

Jong AZ1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth
Almere City FC3 from 2.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong AZ 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 2J. ZwartD
  • 3R. IchiharaD
  • 4F. AndersenD
  • 5J. EsajasD
  • 8R. RobbemondM
  • 6Julian SijbrandsM
  • 7J. HartogM
  • 10H. de WitM
  • 11Wassim bouzianeM
  • 9Jerolldino BergraafF
Substitutes
  • 21K. van OuytselD
  • 18Rick LuijerM
  • 12K. IngeD
  • 20Bohdan BudkoM
  • 14R. AtikallahD
  • 15Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeD
  • 17M. RoedeM
  • 23J. SchipperG
  • 19K. ToppenbergF
Coach: Norbert Alblas
Almere City FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Wessel SpeelG
  • 2M. WasinskiD
  • 3J. JacobsD
  • 44D. van BruggenD
  • 5T. BijleveldD
  • 14M. HoedemakersM
  • 6E. CornelisseM
  • 17E. PokuM
  • 21H. El DahriM
  • 23J. Ritmeester van de KampM
  • 9F. DruijfF
Substitutes
  • 7B. BurgeringF
  • 11M. DorsF
  • 18Bas HuismanF
  • 10J. JacobsM
  • 20J. KalisvaartM
  • 26Twan·Van Der ZeeuwD
  • 30J. van der WiltG
  • 22E. van de BlaakD
  • 19Olivier de NijsM
Coach: Anoush Dastgir

Form going into Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2away to Roda30 October 2026
  • W5-4Helmond Sport23 October 2026
  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Jong AZ failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Jong AZ scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Jong AZ145273331+217
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

  • 26 January 2026Jong AZ 3–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 24 October 2025Almere City FC 1–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 7 April 2023Almere City FC 2–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 22 August 2022Jong AZ 3–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 2 July 2022Jong AZ 1–3 Almere City FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 May 2022Almere City FC 0–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong AZ and Almere City FC

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Almere City FC won 3–1 at Jong AZ. The model had made a win for Almere City FC its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ferdy Druijf 43' for Almere City FC, Jasper Hartog 67' for Jong AZ, Rome Jayden Owusu Oduro (own goal) 73' for Almere City FC, Marley Dors 85' for Almere City FC. On expected goals it finished 1.00–2.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong AZ a 29.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 35.8% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.4%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

For Almere City FC the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 94.3% going in: 96.8% after a win, 94.0% after a draw, 92.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.8%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.