Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Helmond Sport 2-3 FC Volendam.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Helmond Sport, 26% draw, 41% FC Volendam — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Volendam at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BergsenG
- 2R. van BreeD
- 4B. KoglinD
- 14Lovro GoličD
- 5T. PollD
- 19H. IngasonM
- 8Pol LlonchM
- 6M. LudwigM
- 44Xander van der VeldeM
- 9L. BajramiF
- 34T. EssakkatiF
- 47Dayen GeertsM
- 30K. EkoliF
- 22A. DizdarevićM
- 43T. LandheerD
- 94Mauro LenaertsF
- 35N. MeissnerF
- 3F. Van Den EyndenD
- 23Ward van SleeuwenG
- 21Wessel van der HeijdenG
- 16R. SteurG
- 12D. PayneD
- 3M. AmevorD
- 6A. PlatD
- 2P. UgwuD
- 18N. BukalaM
- 8D. HuismanM
- 7N. DoodemanM
- 10R. NiemeijerM
- 21Y. el MaftahiM
- 9H. VeermanF
- 5Dean BisschopsD
- 25Luca BlondeauD
- 67F. IhlerF
- 63J. HaakmatD
- 32Lex KoningG
- 14S. DemeF
- 11Kayden WolffF
- 29Jesper TielemansF
- 22D. VlakG
Form going into Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie
- W3-2FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
- L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2De Graafschap30 October 2026
- W6-2Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam
- 28 February 2025FC Volendam 3–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024Helmond Sport 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 25 February 2022FC Volendam 4–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 3 December 2021Helmond Sport 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 9 April 2021FC Volendam 5–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 18 September 2020Helmond Sport 0–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Helmond Sport and FC Volendam
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman142
- R. Niemeijer52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Volendam won 3–2 at Helmond Sport. The model had made a win for FC Volendam its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lovro Golic (own goal) 45+2' for FC Volendam, Xander van der Velde 59' for Helmond Sport, Precious ugwu 63' for FC Volendam, Michel Simon Ludwig 67' for Helmond Sport, Henk Veerman 82' for FC Volendam. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Helmond Sport a 29.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.1% after a win, 28.9% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.7%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.
For FC Volendam the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 66.2% going in: 72.8% after a win, 63.6% after a draw, 60.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.8%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Helmond Sport v FC Volendam has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is Helmond Sport's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Helmond Sport win33%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- FC Volendam win41%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.