VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: VVV Venlo 1-1 Jong PSV U21.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% VVV Venlo, 25% draw, 20% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
VVV Venlo at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
- 14Raf VullersD
- 4É. ClancyD
- 33G. BlancquartD
- 5Lars de BlokD
- 6A. VerstraetenM
- 38Tristan SchenkhuizenM
- 7E. ZulianiM
- 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
- 19Thomas JanssenM
- 9M. TsigkasF
- 16P. HeiseD
- 21L. GörlichD
- 1T. DoornbuschG
- 31M. DavisD
- 43D. HendrixF
- 15Tijn JoostenD
- 34A. RaisF
- 22Zidane TaylanG
- 35Yousri El AnbriM
- 1T. SmolenaarsG
- 2K. PensoD
- 3M. BresserD
- 4F. MeriénD
- 5R. ManuhutuD
- 6B. MuldersM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 7J. BeerensM
- 10A. BouhamdiM
- 11A. SantosM
- 9M. HansenF
- 15S. SidibeM
- 20Givenciyo SabajoM
- 16Khadim NgomG
- 23Stijn KuijstenG
- 19A. JonesF
- 18P. Holseter-KarlsenM
- 17S. DumbiliF
- 14L. OldenstamD
Form going into VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to MVV31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
- D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2NAC Breda2 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Eindhoven23 October 2026
- L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026
What these results say
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Jong PSV U21 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 29 |
| 13 | Jong PSV U21 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
- 6 April 2026Jong PSV U21 1–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 15 August 2025VVV Venlo 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 27 January 2025Jong PSV U21 1–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024VVV Venlo 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 2 February 2024VVV Venlo 3–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 22 September 2023Jong PSV U21 0–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- É. Clancy51
- L. Schmidt51
Jong PSV U21
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for VVV Venlo at 55% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Amir Bouhamdi 39' for Jong PSV U21, Ismail Oulad M'Hand 66' for VVV Venlo. On expected goals it finished 2.40–0.93.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VVV Venlo a 94.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 95.1% after a win, 93.5% after a draw, 92.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 93.5%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For Jong PSV U21 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.3% going in: 10.6% after a win, 17.2% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.2%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.