23 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais Challenge League prediction & result

Winterthur
Referee: A. Dudic
Full time4 – 0

Final score: FC Winterthur 4-0 Stade Nyonnais.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% FC Winterthur, 20% draw, 11% Stade Nyonnais — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Winterthur at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Winterthur99%Draw1%Stade Nyonnais0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Marchesano
10'
⚽E. Kehrer
29'
⚽A. Turkesassist: F. Rohner
38'
46'
🔁M. Miguelout: F. Hysenaj
🔁F. Rohnerout: E. Maluvunu
46'
51'
J. Mandaka
58'
M. Regillo
61'
🔁J. Mandakaout: P. Moulin
61'
🔁R. Londjaout: G. Figueiredo
61'
🔁F. Lentiniout: E. Ndjoko
🔁A. Turkesout: R. Buess
67'
🔁A. Marchesanoout: A. Jankewitz
67'
🔁E. Kehrerout: B. Beyer
75'
⚽E. Maluvunu
75'
77'
🔁M. Regilloout: C. Betoubam
80'
R. Ouchard
🔁Y. Odinout: E. Essiam
81'
85'
K. Thermoncy

Line-ups

FC Winterthur
  • 75A. Spagnoli
  • 21S. Ottiger
  • 16R. Arnold
  • 4S. Camara
  • 18S. Diaby
  • 19Y. Odin
  • 7L. Zuffi
  • 27F. Rohner
  • 20A. Marchesano
  • 11E. Kehrer
  • 22A. Turkes
Substitutes
  • 1M. Kuster
  • 26L. Sahitaj
  • 33T. Citherlet
  • 45A. Jankewitz
  • 6E. Essiam
  • 44S. Cueni
  • 37E. Maluvunu
  • 9R. Buess
  • 68B. Beyer
Coach: Patrick Rahmen
Stade Nyonnais
  • 40M. Aubert
  • 2R. Ouchard
  • 23K. Thermoncy
  • 4S. Fankhauser
  • 16R. Correia
  • 7F. Lentini
  • 5J. Mandaka
  • 42E. Akichi
  • 9M. Miguel
  • 70R. Londja
  • 91M. Regillo
Substitutes
  • 1M. Mazzeo
  • 15N. Grognuz
  • 66R. Philippin
  • 75P. Moulin
  • 8L. Ribeiro
  • 17E. Ndjoko
  • 11F. Hysenaj
  • 21G. Figueiredo
  • 24C. Betoubam
Coach: Aurelien Mioch

Form going into FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais

FC Winterthur

Challenge League

  • L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League

  • W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
  • L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Winterthur137422813+1525
10Stade Nyonnais132291334-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais

  • 1 September 2026Stade Nyonnais 2–2 FC WinterthurChallenge League

The result against the call

FC Winterthur beat Stade Nyonnais 4–0. The model had made a win for FC Winterthur its most likely outcome, at 69%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Marchesano 10' for FC Winterthur, E. Kehrer 29' for FC Winterthur, A. Turkes 38' for FC Winterthur, E. Maluvunu 75' for FC Winterthur.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Winterthur a 90.2% chance to finish in the top four: 92.8% after a win, 84.2% after a draw, 78.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.8%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Stade Nyonnais the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 87.2% going in: 73.7% after a win, 84.1% after a draw, 89.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.3%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Winterthur v Stade Nyonnais has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 71% / 19% / 10% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 69% / 20% / 11%: the biggest move is FC Winterthur's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Winterthur win69%▼ −2
  2. Draw20%▲ +1
  3. Stade Nyonnais win11%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.