FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: FC Aarau 1-2 Étoile Carouge.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% FC Aarau, 25% draw, 21% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Aarau at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
FC Aarau
Challenge League
- L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Aarau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 15 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
- 24 July 2026Étoile Carouge 3–0 FC AarauChallenge League
- 7 April 2026FC Aarau 1–3 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 6 March 2026Étoile Carouge 0–3 FC AarauChallenge League
- 12 December 2025FC Aarau 2–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 26 September 2025Étoile Carouge 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
- 16 May 2025Étoile Carouge 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
The result against the call
Étoile Carouge won 2–1 at FC Aarau. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Aarau at 54% and given a win for Étoile Carouge 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: H. Koide 2' for FC Aarau, M. Holcbecher 65' for Étoile Carouge, O. Correia 82' for Étoile Carouge.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Aarau a 14.5% chance to finish in the top four: 18.4% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 5.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.5%, 9 points lower than before the match.
For Étoile Carouge the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 6.5% going in: 1.6% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.6%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Challenge League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Aarau v Étoile Carouge has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 59% / 25% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is FC Aarau's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- FC Aarau win54%▼ −5
- Draw25%=
- Étoile Carouge win21%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.