FCSB vs Uta Arad Liga I prediction & result
Final score: FCSB 1-3 Uta Arad.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FCSB, 30% draw, 26% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FCSB at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FCSB vs Uta Arad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32S. TarnovanuG
- 5J. DawaD
- 21D. BatubinsikaD
- 3A. DuarteD
- 31J. CisottiM
- 18Joao PauloM
- 15O. AradM
- 4R. PadurariuM
- 11D. MiculescuF
- 14A. GaritaF
- 28A. BoutoutaouF
- 34M. UdreaG
- 13M. PopaG
- 97R. LabonneD
- 8E. GnahoreM
- 77L. StancuM
- 20D. PoliticF
- 98D. PopaF
- 90A. StoianF
- 1M. RosaG
- 2A. DorobantuD
- 15P. OuanehD
- 4A. BengaD
- 3D. AlomerovicD
- 8A. RomanM
- 5S. MinoM
- 11H. AbdallahM
- 77J. PapeauM
- 20D. TaroiM
- 9M. ComanF
- 33A. GorceaG
- 72A. PadulaD
- 22R. BadescuD
- 19D. IleM
- 7I. SinaniF
- 10M. TzionisF
Form going into FCSB vs Uta Arad
FCSB
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe10 August 2026
- D2-2Farul Constanta3 August 2026
- L1-4away to Auda30 July 2026
Uta Arad
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj17 August 2026
- D0-0Rapid7 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari1 August 2026
- D2-2Oțelul24 July 2026
What these results say
- FCSB failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FCSB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Uta Arad did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 21 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Uta Arad
- 20 March 2026FCSB 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 1 March 2026Uta Arad 2–4 FCSBLiga I
- 3 December 2025Uta Arad 3–0 FCSBCupa României
- 26 October 2025FCSB 4–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 26 January 2025Uta Arad 0–1 FCSBLiga I
- 1 September 2024FCSB 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: FCSB and Uta Arad
FCSB
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Uta Arad won 3–1 at FCSB. The model had leaned towards a win for FCSB at 44% and given a win for Uta Arad 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Coman 26' for Uta Arad, A. Stoian 49' for FCSB, H. Abdallah 54' for Uta Arad, M. Coman 78' for Uta Arad. On expected goals it finished 1.44–1.02.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.