8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Monza vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result

Monza
Referee: Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Monza 0-1 Atalanta.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Monza, 23% draw, 48% Atalanta — fair odds of 3.45, 4.35 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atalanta at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monza0%Draw5%Atalanta95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Eddy Kouadio
14'
Leonardo Colombo
48'
49'
⚽Nikola Krstović
🔁Eddy Kouadioout: Andrea Carboni
60'
🔁Jay Robinsonout: Exequiel Zeballos
61'
🔁Ebenezer Akinsanmiroout: Dany Mota
72'
🔁Idrissa Toureout: Adam Bakoune
72'
75'
🔁Elif Elmasout: Jonathan Rowe
80'
🔁Sead Kolašinacout: Relja Obric
🔁Mathis Moutout: Andrea Colpani
80'
83'
🔁Nikola Krstovićout: Franck Kessié
85'
Éderson José dos Santos
90+2'
Charles De Ketelaere
Andrea Carboni
90+2'
Ivan Juric
90+3'
Andrea Colpani
90+3'
Ivan Juric
90+4'

Match stats — Monza vs Atalanta

49%Possession51%
22Shots13
7On target7
7Corners2
1.42xG1.33

Goals against chances

Monza0 from 1.42 xGless than the chances were worth
Atalanta1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monza 3-5-2
  • 1N. TörnqvistG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 27I. TouréM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 7Ricardo MangasM
  • 9Gustavo VarelaF
  • 46Jay RobinsonF
Substitutes
  • 4J. ZiółkowskiD
  • 22E. ZeballosF
  • 24A. BakouneD
  • 20D. ThiamG
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 26P. CiurriaF
  • 28A. ColpaniM
  • 10P. CutroneF
Coach: I. Juric
Atalanta 4-2-3-1
  • 29M. CarnesecchiG
  • 77D. ZappacostaD
  • 42G. ScalviniD
  • 23S. KolašinacD
  • 47L. BernasconiD
  • 13ÉdersonM
  • 8Mario PasalicM
  • 99E. ElmasM
  • 17C. De KetelaereM
  • 59N. ZalewskiM
  • 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
  • 57M. SportielloG
  • 51M. SonzogniG
  • 9G. ScamaccaF
  • 10L. SamardžićM
  • 11J. RoweF
  • 53M. PlaiaD
  • 40R. ObrićD
  • 19F. KessiéM
  • 41J. IdeleM
Coach: M. Sarri

Form going into Monza vs Atalanta

Monza

Serie A

  • L1-2away to Bologna31 October 2026
  • L1-4Napoli28 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Torino23 October 2026
  • W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026

Atalanta

Serie A

  • L0-3Parma2 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Fiorentina29 October 2026
  • D4-4Frosinone25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Monza scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Monza had three goals or more.
  • Monza failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atalanta did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Atalanta conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Atalanta had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Monza112181725-87
12Atalanta114251720-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monza vs Atalanta

  • 4 May 2025Monza 0–4 AtalantaSerie A
  • 30 October 2024Atalanta 2–0 MonzaSerie A
  • 21 April 2024Monza 1–2 AtalantaSerie A
  • 2 September 2023Atalanta 3–0 MonzaSerie A
  • 4 June 2023Atalanta 5–2 MonzaSerie A
  • 5 September 2022Monza 0–2 AtalantaSerie A

The full Monza vs Atalanta record →

Leading scorers: Monza and Atalanta

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela91

Atalanta

GoalsAssists

  • N. Krstović72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atalanta won 1–0 at Monza. The model had made a win for Atalanta its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Nikola Krstović 49' for Atalanta. Sent off: Ivan Juric (Monza) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.42–1.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monza a 40.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.7% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 44.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.7%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.