Napoli vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 1-1 Lazio.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Napoli, 29% draw, 31% Lazio — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Napoli vs Lazio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 26A. VergaraM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 6B. GilmourM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 17M. OliveraM
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 70N. LangF
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 1A. MeretG
- 39Nikita MelnykM
- 20L. LuccaF
- 40Claudio LietoD
- 23GiovaneF
- 14N. ContiniG
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 36Milton Agustín PereyraF
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 37J. ŠutaloD
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 32D. CataldiM
- 7F. Dele-BashiruM
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 29M. LazzariM
- 77A. MarušićD
- 40E. MottaG
Form going into Napoli vs Lazio
Napoli
Serie A
- L0-2away to Juventus1 November 2026
- W4-1away to Monza28 October 2026
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
Lazio
Serie A
- W2-1Cagliari1 November 2026
- W6-2away to Sassuolo27 October 2026
- W2-1Parma24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026
What these results say
- Napoli conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Napoli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lazio won every one of these 4 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Lazio had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Lazio
- 18 April 2026Napoli 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 4 January 2026Lazio 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 15 February 2025Lazio 2–2 NapoliSerie A
- 8 December 2024Napoli 0–1 LazioSerie A
- 5 December 2024Lazio 3–1 NapoliCoppa Italia
- 28 January 2024Lazio 0–0 NapoliSerie A
Leading scorers: Napoli and Lazio
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Napoli and Lazio drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Napoli at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Davide Frattesi 28' for Lazio, Alfonso Pedraza (own goal) 48' for Napoli. On expected goals it finished 2.44–0.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Napoli a 20.7% chance to finish in the top four: 25.2% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.2%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
For Lazio the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 56.6% going in: 64.2% after a win, 56.8% after a draw, 51.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 56.8%.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Napoli v Lazio has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Napoli win40%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Lazio win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.