8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
Referee: Antonin Bohata
Full time0 – 0

Final score: FK Jablonec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% FK Jablonec, 27% draw, 40% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mlada Boleslav at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Jablonec4%Draw92%Mlada Boleslav4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
Filip Matousek
43'
Martin Králik
45+1'
David Kozel
45'
🔁Filip Matousekout: Denis Donat
45'
🔁Daniel Langhamerout: Filip Spatenka
Lamin Jawo
52'
🔁Lamin Jawoout: Antonín Růsek
59'
🔁Jan Chramostaout: Jan Suchan
59'
62'
🔁Solomon Johnout: Josef Kolarik
Luboš Kozel
62'
69'
Matej Hybs
Garang Mawien Kuol
73'
77'
🔁Jan Buryanout: Lukas Letenay
🔁Garang Mawien Kuolout: Hugo Ahl
78'
🔁Sebastian Nebylaout: Dominik Holly
78'
Dusan Pavlovic
87'
🔁Nelson Okekeout: Daniel Soucek
88'
90'
Vojtěch Vorel
90+2'
🔁Jan Zíkaout: Filip Lehky

Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav

44%Possession56%
9Shots13
1On target3
6Corners4
0.82xG0.5

Goals against chances

FK Jablonec0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Mlada Boleslav0 from 0.50 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FK Jablonec 4-2-3-1
  • 99K. MihelakG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaškiD
  • 15D. PavlovićD
  • 7V. TchanturishviliD
  • 13R. SedláčekM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 19J. ChramostaM
  • 44L. JawoF
Substitutes
  • 20J. SlámaD
  • 14D. SoučekD
  • 16H. AhlM
  • 23E. SobolD
  • 24D. HollýM
  • 10J. SuchanM
  • 33M. KukučkaG
  • 57F. NovákD
  • 21M. PolidarM
Coach: L. Kozel
Mlada Boleslav 4-2-3-1
  • 42V. VorelG
  • 32F. MatoušekD
  • 44O. KarafiátD
  • 3M. KrálikD
  • 11M. HybšD
  • 19D. KozelM
  • 76Jan ZikaM
  • 20S. JohnM
  • 28D. LanghamerM
  • 21M. ŠubertM
  • 70J. BuryánF
Substitutes
  • 14S. GrygarM
  • 5J. HarušťákD
  • 18M. HavranM
  • 49J. KoláříkM
  • 10Filip LehkýM
  • 9L. LetenayF
  • 77D. PechM
  • 17F. ŠpatenkaF
  • 26M. ZachovalD
Coach: A. Majer

Form going into FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav

FK Jablonec

Czech Liga

  • L0-5Slavia Praha31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Hradec Králové25 October 2026
  • L2-3Plzen18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026

Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga

  • W3-1Hradec Králové1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Slavia Praha24 October 2026
  • W1-0Teplice17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bohemians 190514 October 2026

What these results say

  • FK Jablonec scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FK Jablonec conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for FK Jablonec had three goals or more.
  • Mlada Boleslav scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Mlada Boleslav conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Mlada Boleslav had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FK Jablonec146351618-221
3Mlada Boleslav147432215+725

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav

  • 27 June 2026FK Jablonec 5–0 Mlada BoleslavFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 April 2026FK Jablonec 1–0 Mlada BoleslavCup
  • 28 February 2026Mlada Boleslav 3–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 28 September 2025FK Jablonec 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 19 April 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 20 July 2024FK Jablonec 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga

Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav

FK Jablonec

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Mlada Boleslav

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šubert71
  • J. Klíma41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Mlada Boleslav at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.50.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FK Jablonec a 70.7% chance to finish in the top ten: 80.9% after a win, 69.2% after a draw, 63.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 69.2%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FK Jablonec v Mlada Boleslav has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 27% / 40%: the biggest move is Mlada Boleslav's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. FK Jablonec win33%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Mlada Boleslav win40%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.