Plzen vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Plzen 1-1 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Plzen, 26% draw, 38% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Plzen vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44F. WiegeleG
- 2T. PališčákD
- 40S. DwehD
- 98F. PrebslD
- 29A. GabrielM
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 6L. ČervM
- 14Merchas DoskiM
- 12A. SojkaM
- 99A. MemićM
- 80P. AduF
- 23B. FaalF
- 25C. KabongoF
- 18T. LadraF
- 7S. LawalF
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 19C. SouaréM
- 5Karel SpáčilD
- 1D. ŤapajG
- 3D. VavroD
- 44J. SurovčíkG
- 25K. HoeverD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 30J. ZelenýD
- 38H. SochurekM
- 20S. MannsverkM
- 26P. VydraM
- 27E. SinghatehF
- 14J. Braut BrunesF
- 7J. AlcócerF
- 29M. VojtaF
- 15V. VitályosD
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 17J. MercadoF
- 4J. MartinecD
- 28R. MacekM
- 3P. KadeřábekD
- 31M. JurásekM
- 18A. IrvingM
Form going into Plzen vs Sparta Praha
Plzen
Czech Liga
- W4-0away to Baník Ostrava1 November 2026
- L1-2Pardubice25 October 2026
- W3-2away to FK Jablonec18 October 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19051 November 2026
- W5-1Slovácko25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Baník Ostrava18 October 2026
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
What these results say
- Plzen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
- Plzen won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sparta Praha went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sparta Praha kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sparta Praha had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Plzen | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Plzen vs Sparta Praha
- 12 May 2026Sparta Praha 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga
- 22 February 2026Plzen 0–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 20 September 2025Sparta Praha 2–1 PlzenCzech Liga
- 27 April 2025Plzen 2–0 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 23 April 2025Sparta Praha 1–0 PlzenCup
- 30 March 2025Sparta Praha 2–4 PlzenCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Plzen and Sparta Praha
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić46
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Plzen and Sparta Praha drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Praha at 38% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jonatan Braut Brunes 17' for Sparta Praha, Prince Kwabena Adu 45+6' for Plzen. On expected goals it finished 2.14–1.33.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.